tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-63086886278079289782024-03-19T20:59:28.853+08:00現實荒漠Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.comBlogger42125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-75986466731205898072016-07-10T22:31:00.001+08:002016-07-10T22:32:08.717+08:00益品書店到底在玩什麼把戲?<span id="goog_990934260"></span><span id="goog_990934261"></span><br />
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這一兩天,打著只要入場費100元就可以進場翻書翻到飽、飲料喝到飽的益品書店開幕了,有人是覺得,益品書店會摧殘書店跟出版業,讓人家不想買書,也會影響到咖啡廳的生意,但我覺得這樣的批評真的是太重了。<br />
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先從書店的位置開始來討論好了,書店開在仁愛路二段,鴻禧大樓隔壁。這裡並不是商業區,反而比較接近高級住宅區,從店點可以反推出他們對這間店的目標客群,也就是「中產階級家庭」。而今天我去參觀,也的確有不少的親子客或家庭客,年輕男女反而少,也間接證實了我的推敲。<br />
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再從他的藏書來看,益品書店主要收藏高單價的精緻圖像書,不論外文中文都有,包括:食譜、風景攝影集、繪本、藝術畫集等等,並沒有純文字的書籍。直觀來看,這些的藏書貼近某些大眾話題(例如,美國影集漢尼拔的設定資料集,會收藏這本書的人,無非是影視工作者或漢尼拔狂熱者,不然一般人一定是翻翻就算了),所以進一步說,這裡展示的書對一般人而言是有門檻的,但因為內容精緻,有漂亮賣相,所以還能當作娛樂的工具。<br />
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而且,這些藏書並不是真的那麼有系統化的展示,如果真的在這邊翻書,也很難在這邊找到完整的資料(搞不好亞典都還比較有系統)。倘若換成消費者的角度來看益品書店,只要花100元,就可以帶小孩來這裡吹冷氣、喝飲料、打發一下午的時間,高級漫畫王是也。<br />
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但如果要說100元會打趴咖啡廳,我也覺得是多慮了,因為這邊的飲料都是自助式的,想喝什麼就自己去倒,並不是什麼專業高品質的咖啡。有自助飲料吧的店(像網咖或漫畫王)在台灣都多久了,也從來沒聽過造成什麼影響。總之我並不認為益品書店足以對咖啡廳造成威脅。<br />
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另外,若依照媒體的報導,益品若要打平,營收需要170萬,有人試著去分析他們的營收,但我想了一下,益品基本上應該會虧錢。因為他的座位大約150個,假設依照他預估的一天700人次,那理想中的營收最大值會是一個月210萬,但因為這裡是家庭客居多,所以700人這個數字比較有可能發生在六日。平日比較難,而且那附近也沒什麼辦公大樓,很難作為上班族去歇腳的地方。所以月營收我猜比較有可能會落在50-70萬左右,扣掉房租水電人事,若不去計算那些裝潢跟書及採購的費用,可能剛好只是打平,甚至還有一點小虧。<br />
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我個人是不太信他講的為了造福社會而做這個事業啦,凡是商人,必定會有其策略與企圖。如果他未來有展店計畫的話,這間店應該就會是所謂的demo店了,不管多虧錢,都一定得撐下去的。<br />
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<br />Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-52021838310341441092016-05-30T02:01:00.000+08:002016-05-30T02:01:23.908+08:00關於高中制服的各種迷思<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5RlPL-Dg1bDVqVUg2cYpdYwg-SGxDY3RroFBUAossyAj_sBSZzcs1qwRTbo2yOBGM5-89houaeBWHyfnPdlME7w6U7Hoyu-cmk0vIO_ZbjV4AsDHHeY4xRmv0KBcdmrF-nOBT2rH2gkvg/s1600/school-girls-seifuku-thumbnail.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5RlPL-Dg1bDVqVUg2cYpdYwg-SGxDY3RroFBUAossyAj_sBSZzcs1qwRTbo2yOBGM5-89houaeBWHyfnPdlME7w6U7Hoyu-cmk0vIO_ZbjV4AsDHHeY4xRmv0KBcdmrF-nOBT2rH2gkvg/s400/school-girls-seifuku-thumbnail.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">最近呢,因為高中生要不要穿制服這個話題實在很熱門,所以今天來挑戰一下制服的話題吧!</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">我認為,制服是相當重要的一件事情,制服千萬不可廢。在看A片的時候,如果標題寫的是高中女生,可是女主角沒有穿水手服,簡直就跟路人沒兩樣!就好像護士主演的AV,如果你把護士服脫光光,又不戴白色帽冠,那就只是一般的AV女優,根本不是護士。</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">雖說AV只是幻想,現實生活的高中女生根本就不會跟你發生什麼色色的事情,不過有夢最美,希望相隨,就算我只是看著路邊的高中女生也爽。沒穿高中制服的高中女生,縱使全裸在我面前晃來晃去,也彷彿沒有加醬油的荷包蛋,即使鮮嫩多汁,但也索然無味。</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">寫到這邊,一定會有人覺得不舒服,高中制服就是給我這種思想下流的人來意淫嗎?高中制服這種東西,說穿了也是穿給師長們看的,為了滿足師長們的想法,規定高中生穿制服,只是為了滿足自己的想法,那跟我這種喜歡看高中女生流口水的中年男子有何不同?</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">雖然這些人一定會講一些理由啦,什麼為了避免造成霸凌,為了避免顯示貧富差距,但我覺得我們可以一一審視這些理由到底合不合理。</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.6667px; line-height: 20.24px; white-space: pre-wrap;">1. </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.6667px; line-height: 1.38; white-space: pre-wrap;">避免造成霸凌</span></b></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">有個圖文作家,說他以前去加拿大唸書的時候,因為學校沒有穿制服的規定,而他又窮得買不起好看的便服,因此被同學霸凌了。先不管這個故事是不是真的,也許他的錢都拿去買機票,所以沒錢買新衣服,但學校同學若是真的想霸凌你,就算你們學校規定穿制服,你還是會被霸凌啊!各位回想一下青春期的痛苦經驗吧,被霸凌的原因有很多,舉凡你太臭屁、長得醜、跟小太妹喜歡的男生說話、愛跟老師打小報告還是人緣不好,這些都有可能,但總歸來說就是一個原因,「看你不順眼」,講一句不客氣一點的,你就算穿上跟其他人一模一樣的衣服,還是會讓人覺得討厭,不要把被欺負的原因歸咎在衣服上好嗎?</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.6667px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>2. 培養端莊的德性</b></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">這點也是蠻值得懷疑的,首先,端莊的定義是什麼?北一女是全台北市的女生第一志願,制服規定要把上衣的下襬塞進裙子或褲子內。端莊嗎?衝著他是北一女的份上就算是端莊好了!然而台中女中同樣也是綠上衣黑百摺裙,跟北一女是類似的款式,但是台中女中的上衣是規定不可以塞進去的喔,所以,台中女中的制服就不端莊嗎?吼,抓到了,你一定是天龍人!很明顯,端莊就是一個充滿主觀的認定嘛!</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.6667px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>3. 避免顯示貧富差距</b></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">如果穿制服就可以避免顯示貧富差距的話,那我想跟大家推薦一個要穿制服的職業,那就是佛教的僧侶。佛教的僧侶要穿袈裟,就可以避免顯示貧富差距嗎?對啦,我承認從一些佛教領袖的袈裟真的看不出來他們多有錢,要從肥嘟嘟的肚子才知道富有的程度。所以制服真的是可以讓人看不出來貧富差距的,因為衣服都長得一模一樣,即使有些有錢的學生會花大筆銀子去訂作制服,但除非仔細去比較衣服的質料,不然你也看不出來。因此,制服的確有辦法讓人看不出來這傢伙多有錢。</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">綜合以上結論,制服除了可以讓有錢人裝窮之外,還真想不到什麼好處。其實台灣長久以來,教育體制有著軍事化的氣息,那種每個人的制服一定要穿得整齊劃一的規矩,也是受到軍事訓練的影響,但套一句軍中長官的話,上面的人愛看,我也沒辦法,所以總歸來說,除了滿足成人的慾望之外,還真的找不到什麼更高明的理由來說明為什麼要穿制服。</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">如果看完這篇文章,你還是一樣支持要穿制服,而且是整齊劃一的制服,那我想你應該跟我一樣,很喜歡在捷運上欣賞可愛的高中生吧!</span></div>
Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-49040043298941798552016-04-02T20:42:00.003+08:002016-04-08T04:14:58.880+08:00為什麼天佑台灣會是廢文關鍵字之王?<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.62; margin-bottom: 5pt; margin-top: 5pt; text-align: center;">
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 15.3333px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">很多人愛在文章的後面加上一句「天佑台灣」,來表達自己的悲天憫人、憂國憂民的情懷。不過根據我的觀察啦,通常在文章後面加這句話的,高達八成是廢文,堪稱是廢文關鍵字之王。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 15.3333px; line-height: 1.62; white-space: pre-wrap;">關於「天佑台灣」,最初應該是仿效美國。美國總統很喜歡在公開場合的演講中,在結尾時使用「天佑美國」,做為對美國前途的祝禱,像美國總統歐巴馬就很愛來這套。除了美國總統之外,外國人也愛講這句,不過那大多是有著一定政治地位的人才會講,例如:2015年教宗訪問美國時,在白宮的演講,也是以「天佑美國」收尾。</span></div>
<a name='more'></a><span style=""><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 15.3333px; line-height: 1.62; white-space: pre-wrap;">「天佑美國」應該是起源於1918年。當時有位作曲家寫了首愛國歌曲,歌名就叫《天佑美國》,據說這歌的地位堪稱是美國第二國歌,政府機關、軍隊都會在正式場合中演奏這首曲子,許多流行歌手都曾翻唱過這首歌,包括席琳狄翁。地位大概有點像《中華民國頌》那樣,不過台灣近年來國家認同是個比較複雜的問題,願意唱《中華民國頌》的人不多,大概只有王炳忠會大聲唱出來吧。</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 15.3333px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">回過頭來看台灣,何時誰最先講天佑台灣呢?根據考察</span><span style="color: #141823; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.6667px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">,應該是民視的一個政論節目</span><span style="color: #252525; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.6667px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">《天佑台灣:與國師對話》,這個節目播出的時間是2003年12月15日到2004年之間,由李鴻禧所主持。李鴻禧曾在台大法律系教授憲法,與陳水扁是師生關係,也許是這個緣故,陳水扁後來延用</span><span style="color: #141823; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 15.3333px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">「天佑台灣」這四個字作為自己的政治訴求</span><span style="color: #141823; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.6667px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 15.3333px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">在2004年3月19日總統大選投票前一天,阿扁在造勢大會上提出了「天佑台灣」作為競選訴求。同年4月,他在在嘉義的民進黨感恩餐會上發表了感言,同樣也以「天佑台灣」來形容自己經歷319槍擊案、320總統大選與327國親凱道集會這段時間的心情。接下來在大大小小的新聞報導中,都可以看到陳水扁常把這四個字掛在嘴上,儼然是他的口頭禪一般。甚至他在2012年(當時已入監服刑),在替岳母奔喪的場合發表演說時,又講了一次。</span></div>
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 15.3333px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img alt="2013-03-11 14-15-57DSC05553.JPG" height="351" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/pN15We-jeQGupuV5GfjV9SVxX1X43rzhrVAXjqyMdhNE2hP2QDPng60CdEKK70ZRKjyhpJ9sOJQsHZ-Yf8dx9ZGjr_03p6SZ4hi0P3hBm28jZl5aRlwzoHkh6Gg7077f8yQzBuoh" style="-webkit-transform: rotate(0.00rad); border: none; transform: rotate(0.00rad);" width="624" /></span><span style="color: #141823; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 15.3333px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">除了阿扁,民進黨系的政治人物,也愛講「天佑台灣」,像是2008年時任國防部長的蔡明憲,在2013年就出版了一本回憶錄</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">《天佑台灣 - 蔡明憲的從政告白》,除了蔡明憲,其他一些民進黨大老如呂秀蓮等,都曾以口頭講過這四個字。</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">所以,你可以發現,</span><span style="color: #141823; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 15.3333px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">「天佑台灣」最初是個極具政治涵義的詞彙。但,什麼時候開始,這四個字不再被綠營人物獨家使用了呢?2009年的莫拉克風災,造成了全台超過600人死亡,損失金額超過195億元,是1996年賀伯颱風之後,造成災情最慘重的颱風。而當時的媒體,就開始使用「天佑台灣」作為新聞標題,以表達對災情的同情。</span></div>
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 15.3333px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 15.3333px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">從此之後,每逢天災或重大事件,包括高雄氣爆案、復興空難,台南大地震等。只要發生重大災難,就會開始有人講「天佑台灣」。對於這樣的現像,網路有不少人還發文批判,</span><span style="color: #141823; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 15.3333px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">彷彿</span><span style="color: #141823; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 15.3333px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">「天佑台灣」就像個咒語,事情發生之後只要唸一唸就可以得到心理滿足,不需要作任何事情來避免下一次的災難發生。</span></div>
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 15.3333px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">「天佑台灣」的涵義演變,從極具台獨意識的語彙,到變成對災難的同情,最後是一種如趨魔咒語般的存在。而面對重大社會議題,也有人很愛藉著「天佑台灣」來表達出一種「自己其實是很關心這片土地」的心態,但其實是呈現一種「將與自己對立的意見視為天災」的態度,然而對於天災(對立的意見),卻從未試圖去理解其成因,甚至也不會試著拆解話語找出邏輯矛盾處,以為自己唸個咒語就沒事了。</span></div>
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 15.3333px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">這就是為什麼「天佑台灣」這麼容易變成廢文關鍵字的原因,這個詞彙在用來討論與人有關的問題時,主要在尋求別人的認同,很容易流露出敵視的心態,而非是對不同立場的理解與溝通。</span></div>
Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-84353633108617143662016-01-23T03:51:00.000+08:002016-01-24T18:23:00.731+08:00周子瑜事件對2016大選結果的影響為何?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxQRCLKjshCrPsADRljN-XCf83uQZ-eK5IsF92QwMc9jzcU0E1NPOcxftufstbZrJMC6fvn9pFLO2CVIfUMCfMbhAMvxSwtya7_FatOheypZMLmk9j9wXPhwlU11Iee94RF4lq0_tn0CnG/s1600/photo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxQRCLKjshCrPsADRljN-XCf83uQZ-eK5IsF92QwMc9jzcU0E1NPOcxftufstbZrJMC6fvn9pFLO2CVIfUMCfMbhAMvxSwtya7_FatOheypZMLmk9j9wXPhwlU11Iee94RF4lq0_tn0CnG/s320/photo.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US">2016</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">大選得票結果已經出來,可針對周子瑜事件對選舉結果的影響進行分析。我採用的分析方式為參考選前各預測資料,並以實際得票率進行比對,主要會參考以下幾個資料來源的看法,包括:日本學者小笠原欣幸的研究報告、《無情真實的未來預測》部落格、經濟學人智庫、各民調單位。</span></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><b><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US">1.<span style="font-stretch: normal;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">對總統選舉的影響不大</span></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">先從投票率的預估來看,選前普遍認為投票率會有</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">成,然而實際的投票率只有</span><span lang="EN-US">66.2%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">再來看各方封關前的民調,根據各方民調,《無情真實的未來預測》認為英仁配的民調為</span><span lang="EN-US">43.8%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,朱玄配為</span><span lang="EN-US">20.69%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,宋瑩配為</span><span lang="EN-US">11.21%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,未表態的則有</span><span lang="EN-US">24.3%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。而實際得票結果,英仁配為</span><span lang="EN-US">56.12%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,朱玄配為</span><span lang="EN-US">31.04%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,宋瑩則為</span><span lang="EN-US">12.84%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。也就是說,選前未表態的選民,將票平均分散給英仁配與朱玄配。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">而小笠原欣幸教授的預測報告則與最終結果相去不遠,僅有</span><span lang="EN-US">1%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的誤差,而《無情真實的未來預測》的預測誤差則為</span><span lang="EN-US">3%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-size: large;">總統得票的預估與實際結果相差並不大,所以周子瑜事件對總統選舉並未造成太大影響,也許這是因為選前朱玄配聲勢始終未能超過英倫配,導致選民們並不期待可以透過投票改變結果,所以並未因此改變投票意向。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">朱玄配</span></div>
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<td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 78.65pt;" valign="top" width="105"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">宋瑩配</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" valign="top" width="112"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">投票率</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 94.6pt;" valign="top" width="126"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">小笠原欣幸</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">研究報告</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.25pt;" valign="top" width="112"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">56%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" valign="top" width="112"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">32%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 78.65pt;" valign="top" width="105"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">12%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" valign="top" width="112"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">無預測</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 94.6pt;" valign="top" width="126"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">無情真實的未來預測</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.25pt;" valign="top" width="112"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">57.55%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" valign="top" width="112"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">27.8%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 78.65pt;" valign="top" width="105"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">14.65%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" valign="top" width="112"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">72.24%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 94.6pt;" valign="top" width="126"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">實際得票率</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.25pt;" valign="top" width="112"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">56.12%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" valign="top" width="112"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">31.04%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 78.65pt;" valign="top" width="105"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">12.84%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" valign="top" width="112"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">66.2%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: , serif;">【</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">封關前民調一覽</span><span style="font-family: , serif;">】</span></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 94.6pt;" valign="top" width="126"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.25pt;" valign="top" width="112"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">英仁配</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" valign="top" width="112"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">朱玄配</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 78.65pt;" valign="top" width="105"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">宋瑩配</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" valign="top" width="112"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">未表態</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 94.6pt;" valign="top" width="126"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台灣指標民調</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">2015.12.29</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.25pt;" width="112"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">40.1%</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" width="112"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">17.5%</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 78.65pt;" width="105"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">16.8%</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" width="112"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">25.7%</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 94.6pt;" valign="top" width="126"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">TVBS</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">民調</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">2016.01.04</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.25pt;" width="112"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">43%</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" width="112"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">25%</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 78.65pt;" width="105"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">15%</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" width="112"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">17%</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 94.6pt;" valign="top" width="126"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.appledaily.com.tw/appledaily/article/headline/20160104/36991975/"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; text-decoration: none;"><span lang="EN-US">世新大學</span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">2016.01.02</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.25pt;" width="112"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">42.1%</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" width="112"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">21.4%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 78.65pt;" width="105"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">13.5%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" width="112"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">23.0%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 94.6pt;" valign="top" width="126"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: , serif;">典通</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">2016.01.04</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.25pt;" width="112"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">38.4%</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" width="112"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">16.8%</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 78.65pt;" width="105"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">13.6%</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" width="112"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">31.2%</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 94.6pt;" valign="top" width="126"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">壹電視</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">2016.01.03</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.25pt;" width="112"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">38.7%</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" width="112"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">16.4%</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 78.65pt;" width="105"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">13.7%</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" width="112"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">31.2%</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 94.6pt;" valign="top" width="126"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">趨勢</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">2016.01.03</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.25pt;" width="112"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">42.8%</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" width="112"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">17.9%</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 78.65pt;" width="105"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">11.5%</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" width="112"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">27.8%</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 94.6pt;" valign="top" width="126"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">總和預估</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">加權後</span><span lang="EN-US">) *</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.25pt;" width="112"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: , serif;">約</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">43.8%<b><o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" width="112"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: , serif;">約</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">20.69%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 78.65pt;" width="105"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: , serif;">約</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">11.21%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" width="112"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: , serif;">約</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">24.3%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 94.6pt;" valign="top" width="126"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">實際得票率</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.25pt;" valign="top" width="112"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US">56.12%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" valign="top" width="112"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US">31.04%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 78.65pt;" valign="top" width="105"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US">12.84%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" valign="top" width="112"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">*</span><span style="font-family: , serif;">參考《無情真實的未來預測》</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-para-margin-left: 0gd; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-stretch: normal;">2. </span><span style="font-stretch: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">時代力量因此從區域激戰區勝出</span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-size: large;">從各智庫的預估資料中發現,時代力量並不被看好,然而選舉完後,黃國昌、林昶佐、洪慈庸等三人卻都當選,表現超出預期。這三人的選區,都屬於激戰區,面對了在地經營許久的國民黨籍候選人。即使他們努力積極地在打選戰,努力拉近距離,但仍然欠缺勝選的把握。</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">三人的得票率分別為:黃國昌為</span><span lang="EN-US">51.52%(</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">李慶華</span><span lang="EN-US">43.72%)</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、林昶佐</span><span lang="EN-US">49.52%(</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">林郁方</span><span lang="EN-US">45.59%)</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、洪慈庸</span><span lang="EN-US">53.87%(</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">楊瓊櫻</span><span lang="EN-US">45.16%)</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。若不是周子瑜事件,可能無法獲勝。</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">【區域立委席次預估一覽】</span></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.85pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">民進黨</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.85pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">國民黨</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.65pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">時代力量</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 54.6pt;" valign="top" width="73"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">親民黨</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.35pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">新黨</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.8pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">無黨籍</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">經濟學人智庫</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.85pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">45</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.85pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">26</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.65pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">0</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 54.6pt;" valign="top" width="73"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">0</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.35pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">0</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.8pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">2</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">小笠原欣幸</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">研究報告</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.85pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">51</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.85pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">20</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.65pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 54.6pt;" valign="top" width="73"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">1</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.35pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">0</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.8pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">1</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">無情真實的未來預測</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.85pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">46</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.85pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">23</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.65pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">1</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 54.6pt;" valign="top" width="73"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">1</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.35pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">1</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.8pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">1</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">實際席次</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.85pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">49</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.85pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">20</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.65pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">3</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 54.6pt;" valign="top" width="73"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">0</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.35pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">0</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.8pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">1</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">*</span><span style="font-family: , serif;">因原住民選區並非由區域居民選出,故排除</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US">3. </span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">政黨票:告急牌生效</span> <span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">選民傾向綠營</span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">耐人尋味的是,時代力量原本在不分區的表現是被看好的,但反而卻比預期的略低。要拿到</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">席,得票率應該落在</span><span lang="EN-US">9%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,但實際開票結果是</span><span lang="EN-US">6.1%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,推測應該與民進黨在選前打告急牌有關。民進黨在</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">12</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日時開記者會,說明民進黨政黨票支持率太低,而時代力量只有推</span><span lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">個候選人,得票數太高可能會浪費選票,因此呼籲時代力量的選民將票轉給民進黨。民進黨的告急牌,果然生效。</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">而以實際得票率而言,民進黨</span><span lang="EN-US">44.04%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,國民黨</span><span lang="EN-US">26.9%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,時代力量</span><span lang="EN-US">6.1%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,親民黨</span><span lang="EN-US">6.52%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,若再把新黨</span><span lang="EN-US">(4.18%)</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、台聯</span><span lang="EN-US">(2.51%)</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、綠社盟</span><span lang="EN-US">(2.53%)</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">加入統計,顯示出綠大於藍的態勢。</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-size: large;">也許可以這樣解讀,對大部份選民而言,民進黨與時代力量處於相近的意識形態,因此接收到告急訊息後,選擇將政黨票投給民進黨。</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: , serif;">【不分區立委席次預估一覽</span><span style="font-family: , serif;">】</span></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.85pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">民進黨</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.85pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">國民黨</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.65pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">時代力量</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 54.6pt;" valign="top" width="73"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">親民黨</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.8pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">其他</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">小笠原欣幸</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">研究報告</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">16</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.85pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">11</span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.65pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 54.6pt;" valign="top" width="73"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">3</span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.8pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">0</span></div>
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<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">無情真實的未來預測</span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.85pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">16</span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.85pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">11</span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.65pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">4</span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 54.6pt;" valign="top" width="73"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">3</span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.8pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">0</span></div>
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<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">實際席次</span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.85pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">18</span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.85pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">11</span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.65pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">2</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 54.6pt;" valign="top" width="73"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">3</span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.8pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">0</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">*</span><span style="font-family: , serif;">其他包含台聯、綠社盟、新黨等各小黨</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>結論:周子瑜事件激發的是一種危機感。</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-size: large;">本次選舉,總統大選結果已在選前大勢抵定,時代力量因為周子瑜事件而在戰況激烈的區域選舉中勝選,但由於政治光譜的關係,政黨票反而卻被民進黨給吸走,所以告急牌對於選民仍是能發生一定的效果。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">因此,本次選舉獲勝的關鍵在於危機感,尤其是戰況激烈的選區。黃國昌等人的選區,因為隨時都有可能會輸,所以能夠激出選民投票。民進黨選前打的告急牌,也是因為這個原因,才能夠發揮效果。而真正讓人感受到危機的,正是周子瑜事件,如果輸了這次選舉,我們豈不是都會跟周子瑜像</span><span lang="EN-US">ISIS</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的人質一樣,被迫講一些不想講的話?這就是最大的危機。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-size: large;">至於國民黨為什麼沒有因為危機感而出來投票?我想,那是因為那些「沉默的多數」,認為怎麼投票都沒用吧。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-size: large;">【參考資料】</span></span></div>
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<a href="http://tsjh301.blogspot.tw/2016/01/2016-presidential-election-5.html"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">無情真實的未來事件簿</span><span lang="EN-US">-2016</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">總統大選的最後猜想:科學統計將證明選舉操弄是一場政治騙局</span></span></a></div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/%E8%88%89http://www.thenewslens.com/post/272088/"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">關鍵評論網</span><span lang="EN-US">-</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">民進黨「完全執政」!</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">張圖秒懂</span><span lang="EN-US">2016</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">全台立委選舉</span></span></a></div>
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<a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E7%AB%8B%E6%B3%95%E5%A7%94%E5%93%A1%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">維基百科</span><span lang="EN-US">-2016</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年中華民國立法委員選舉</span></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/HatePolitics/M.1453210658.A.214.html"><span class="article-meta-value"><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日本東京大學小笠原欣幸教授</span> </span><span class="article-meta-value"><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">選前預測</span></span></a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: , serif; font-size: large;">【補充閱讀】</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: , serif; font-size: large;">林濁水對於周子瑜事件影響的評論是:</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: , "helvetica" , "heiti tc" , "segoe ui" , "meiryo"; font-size: 22px; line-height: 40px;"><i>「周子瑜事件引爆民眾主權被嚴重打壓的危機意識,於是主張九二共識一中各表的藍黨全面受傷;同時,也使民眾把票集中到民進黨身上,而壓抑了泛綠各小黨的政黨得票率。所以時代力量在這過程中就有如坐雲霄飛車一樣,支持度大起大落。 」</i></span><br />
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<a href="http://www.my-formosa.com/DOC_94874.htm"><span style="font-size: large;">美麗島電子報:周子瑜風暴─兩大黨危機和第二大黨換人做</span></a><br />
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Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-17529206751020462892016-01-17T03:27:00.003+08:002016-01-17T04:01:16.858+08:00總統選舉完後,台灣社會可能會發生的改變<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6S2HVJG4BgSwiBUZ5fTuQcRYLijmJtYU4xUAFw_ZF73fyLtA84OO-722I3p57AzxQgZ_tN3JHaeC-0zus_4PZ4ZkM-p2P_weKGX7T-cOCKPuf-BPJJYfzhCP414QcN0pbYn92HII1Hi31/s1600/12471736_10208608000736378_7475463057097727307_o.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="222" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6S2HVJG4BgSwiBUZ5fTuQcRYLijmJtYU4xUAFw_ZF73fyLtA84OO-722I3p57AzxQgZ_tN3JHaeC-0zus_4PZ4ZkM-p2P_weKGX7T-cOCKPuf-BPJJYfzhCP414QcN0pbYn92HII1Hi31/s400/12471736_10208608000736378_7475463057097727307_o.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: large; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">總統大選終於落幕了,民進黨大獲全勝,根據這段期間發生的大小事,我對台灣接下來會遇到的局面做了一些推論:</span><br />
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span lang="EN-US">1.</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">國民黨可能步入難以振興的衰敗局面</span></b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: large;">國民黨這次的慘敗,原因有很多,從人事面來看,黨政高層不肯接納他人意見,排除異己,在選前開除楊實秋等五名黨員就是最好的例子。此外,對待基層或支持者也並不厚道,如軍宅案,明顯就是在剝削軍人,而軍公教一向被視為國民黨的死忠支持者,敢剝削支持者,明顯就是吃定他們。再加上從一開始的總統人選提名,到換柱這段時間中,各大老因為怕死,所以遲遲不敢表態,只考量到國民黨敗選後如何讓自己擔任共主,而非真正替國民黨思考未來方向。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: large;">為了自己的利益,寧可輸掉大選,不覺得這個邏輯很有問題嗎?換句話說,這一群傲慢的老人,從來只思考自己的利益。在這種狀況下,除非所有人願意捨棄利益,不然國民黨很難提出有效重新掌權的策略,否則縱使喊出團結口號,那也只是兼併勢力的藉口。但我覺得很難,因為國民黨的黨產利益相當龐大,只要有利益,就會吸引貪婪的人。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: large;">不過,也因為黨產,國民黨並不會那麼快倒下。假設蔡英文上任後,若提出黨產歸零的法案,可能真的會讓國民黨逐漸變成國會小黨。但說不定,這將是國民黨重生的契機。</span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><b><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US">2.</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">統獨路線不再是討論議題,取而代之的是鷹派與鴿派</span></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">本次選舉前夕爆出了周子瑜事件,這件事情可說是拆穿了「九二共識」這個謊言。所謂的「台獨」,就是抗拒被中國統一的代名詞,國民黨是台獨,民進黨也是台獨,我不是針對你,我是說在座的各位的都是台獨!統派已被消滅,統獨路線不再存在討論價值。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">當然,一心想要與大陸統一,或是想要「建立台灣國」的人還是存在,但具有這種極端政治思想的人終究是少數,從政黨票就可發現,新黨拿了</span><span lang="EN-US">4%</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">,台聯也才拿了</span><span lang="EN-US">2%</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">。換個角度來說,對目前的台灣人而言,只要維持現有獨立主權的狀況,不論國號是「中華民國」或「台灣國」,都不是那麼重要。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: large;">但由於台灣的地理因素,實在無法不受到中國的影響,所以接下來對中國的態度,只會分成鷹派與鴿派。鷹派就是主張與中國保持距離,並逐步地讓國內企業擺脫受到中國的影響與牽制,為了主權不甚至惜動武,鴿派則是親中派,在維護自我主權的前提下,與中國和平共處。要選擇當一隻和平鴿還是老鷹?這將會是接下來國內討論的重要議題。</span></div>
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Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-76575229572793242872016-01-12T00:33:00.002+08:002016-01-12T00:36:47.072+08:00為什麼黃安這麼愛扣人台獨的帽子?<div class="MsoNormal">
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在黃安的微博上,可以看出他的想法,從學運以來,有不少的年輕人開始支持台獨,而他也引述蔡英文的說法,台灣這些年輕人都是天然獨,而按照這樣的邏輯推演,他也很自然地判定周子瑜也屬於「天然獨」世代。於是便試圖呼籲周子瑜表態,要她發表支持一中的言論。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">他的邏輯推演,我認為是有問題的,因為他直接以蔡英文的論點與對</span><span lang="EN-US">318</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">學運的觀察為前提,對周子瑜進行了假設,並以逼人表態的方式來進行驗證,某方面而言,這根本是陷阱題。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">其實我覺得黃安已經有了心魔,只要看到一點蛛絲馬跡,就見獵心喜,對</span><span lang="EN-US">NONO</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">是這樣,對盧廣仲也是這樣。那麼他到底想證明什麼?真的只是為了刷存在感嗎?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">從他對</span><span lang="EN-US">NONO</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">批判的這句話可以略窺一二,「</span><span lang="EN-US">NONO</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">是我多年好友,你要來大陸撈錢還支持台獨,你有病啊!」。為了大陸市場,就勢必要做出政治立場的選擇,這個價值觀本身也是非常弔詭。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">這些人就是一直跟你洗腦,你要不要跟中國做生意?你要跟中國做生意就必須承認台灣是中國的一部分,中國現在崛起了,你不跟中國做生意就是跟世界脫節喔,你確定真的不要承認嗎?啊,那你完蛋了!這種洗腦話術聽久了,就會讓人覺得,跟中國做生意就是必須要選擇政治立場。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-43147808897871137962016-01-09T20:39:00.002+08:002016-01-10T18:40:59.888+08:00我們應該要選出怎麼樣的立法委員?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="color: #141823; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-font-family: Helvetica;">今天龔大中發了一篇文章,大意是說,他在好幾年前去the wall開會的時候,一時尿急,在找廁所的時候剛好遇到林昶佐,結果林昶佐傲慢地不願回答,叫他問別人,因為這個經驗,讓他實在無法支持林昶佐。很多朋友看了這篇發文後很不高興,覺得他別有居心,但我認為大家不需要對這則發文反應太大,他也只是在抒發一些自己的觀察跟看法,雖然現在時機敏感,但如果扯到什麼意圖使林昶佐落選或是支持林郁方的立場,那有點太過頭了。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #141823; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">第一個層次,不論是龔大中的發言,或是我朋友們的看法,這些都屬於「觀察」與「經驗」,而這兩個元素都會受到當事人的價值觀所左右,有可能因為一時的好惡或情緒有所偏頗,所以對於基於「觀察」與「經驗」衍生出的結論最好持保留態度。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">第二個層次,這樁因為尿尿而引發的慘案,其實也沒辦法證明什麼吧?</span><span lang="EN-US">ok</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,假設龔言論為真,那表示這傢伙真是傲慢又無禮,但是這與立法委員需要的能力有何關係?頂多只能說明這傢伙很討厭,可是不代表不適合當立委啊。</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">OK</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,問題來了,什麼叫作立法委員該有的能力呢?立委的本業就是問政、質詢、審預算,就我來看,能不能從一堆看似平凡的公務報告中推敲出問題徵結,就會是重點,也就是推理能力與表達能力。不過這兩種能力,是無法彰顯在外的,像表達力,這指的不單是講話天花亂綴,而是能不能在最短時間內表達自己的意見;而推理力,則是邏輯推演的能力。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">如果真的想瞭解立委的工作在作什麼,真心推薦關鍵評論網推出的《立委衝啥毀</span><span lang="EN-US">!?</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">》網站,裡面以資訊圖表的方式詳細介紹了立法院的制度,跟現在運作發生的問題。</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://legislator.thenewslens.com/">http://legislator.thenewslens.com/</a></span></div>
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<span style="color: #141823; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-font-family: Helvetica;">但最後,我還是要很嚴肅地呼籲,請蔡英文放過龔大中的膀胱!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #141823; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
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(文章後記:龔的那篇發文發出後10幾個小時之後就不見了,取而代之的是他對林郁方長髮論的批評,我個人覺得蠻可惜的啦!)</div>
<br />Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-529285359766825652016-01-03T18:36:00.000+08:002016-01-03T19:28:49.523+08:00品牌,你的堅持在消費者的眼中其實是傲慢!<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">隨著投票日將近,國民黨最近</span><span lang="EN-US">(2016/1/3)</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">推出了一支名為《五年級生》的影片廣告,內容是一名中年人自述,自己的努力與付出不被人諒解,堅持的理念都被其他人看不起,「我的正義,什麼都不是」,但片尾最後仍然堅持要去投票,支持自己的價值觀。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">同樣也是一支被人抨擊到爆的廣告,兩支影片竟然流露出如此相似的訊息:<span style="background-color: yellow;">我們</span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">品牌</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">這麼盡心盡力,為什麼你們</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">消費者</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span></span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="background-color: yellow;">就是不買單?</span>縱使你們不了解,我們還是會堅持下去。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">消費者不買單的理由很簡單啊,因為這兩支影片都是屬於自</span><span lang="EN-US">high</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">式廣告,除非是你的死忠支持者,誰要陪你一起</span><span lang="EN-US">high</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">?這兩支品牌影片都無法有效解決消費者的問題,不管你怎麼展現你的努力,消費者當然不買單,如果品牌已深陷公關危機,更會成為眾人嘲諷的對象。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">那麼要怎麼樣才不會讓廣告淪為自</span><span lang="EN-US">high</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">呢?照一般的常理而言,不外乎就是兩種方向,要嘛就是選擇本品牌可以解決你生活的問題,要嘛就是可以讓你的生活變得更好。不過,那是常理,不論是味全或國民黨,消費者已經對品牌失望,品牌不論怎麼講,只會收到反效果。</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Ok</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,那還有一招就是透過情感訴求,但這種情感,肯定不是同情,就好像你買了一台電腦,發現又慢又難用,結果電腦公司告訴你,他們很認真在組裝,請認同他們的努力,管他多努力啊!難用的東西就是難用,誰還跟你繼續買?但如果他們是說,他們會參考你的意見改良產品,至少你的感覺會好一點吧?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="http://%E3%80%8A%E5%BE%9E%E6%9E%97%E9%B3%B3%E7%87%9F%E4%BA%8B%E4%BB%B6%E7%9C%8B%E2%80%A6%E3%80%8B%E6%B6%88%E8%B2%BB%E8%80%85%E5%B0%8D%E5%93%81%E7%89%8C%E4%BF%A1%E4%BB%BB%E7%93%A6%E8%A7%A3%E7%9A%84%E9%81%8E%E7%A8%8B/">《從林鳳營事件看…》消費者對品牌信任瓦解的過程</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="http://www.1111.com.tw/zone/marketingjob/discussTopic.asp?id=38763">《從林鳳營事件看…》品牌如何激怒網友?</a></span></h1>
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Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-63205662637733117612015-10-03T20:59:00.000+08:002015-10-03T21:03:09.504+08:00馮光遠大戰吳宗憲,為何馮光遠輸掉了?<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkqUntSI1i1oPhMsZYx2MOhKD5_4859OErO506NSOun1vCqAYIRlj0UKK7Qqj-_imbaWTut9uflL0xUeH40CGSWz5dOVvSDjVp1MrWL9r3psCZgpDQFUCSrGD_z89nktAygMygJjICqgLf/s1600/s_1502af332df000006001.jpg" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkqUntSI1i1oPhMsZYx2MOhKD5_4859OErO506NSOun1vCqAYIRlj0UKK7Qqj-_imbaWTut9uflL0xUeH40CGSWz5dOVvSDjVp1MrWL9r3psCZgpDQFUCSrGD_z89nktAygMygJjICqgLf/s400/s_1502af332df000006001.jpg" /></a>
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昨晚正晶現實批節目上,吳宗憲大戰馮光遠,據說創下節目有史以來第二高的收視率。這兩個人平常都是以尖酸搞笑聞名,但領域不太相同。一個是作家,一個是節目主持人;一個專門批判時政,一個什麼玩笑都開;一個聚焦文化,一個專注娛樂,
所以某方面來講真是矛盾大對決。
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不過節目中,馮光遠在開頭談完言論自由的議題,對搞笑的看法之後,沈玉琳跟吳宗憲開始反擊,馮光遠就此不但笑不出來,反而一直處於挨打的狀態,為什麼呢?
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沈玉琳與吳宗憲的談話,採用的是庶民式的語言,不時使用類比譬喻的方式,讓概念更清楚地傳達到觀眾的心中,並且援引大眾耳熟能詳的語彙,例如吳一開始就直接說<q>政治是管理眾人之事,綜藝是娛樂眾人之事</q>,前者是在國小課本中就已灌輸給大眾的觀念,後者則是吳自己的說法,兩句話之間沒有直接關聯,卻以類比的方式建立出自己欲傳達的概念,跟政治劃清界線,自己只是個娛樂大眾的小丑,直接撇開馮光遠的憲法說明,重新建立主導權。
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吳宗憲話術的巧妙之處就在這裡,透過直覺式的聯想推導結論,令聽者身陷邏輯陷阱而不自知,並且避開了被嚴謹的語意標準檢視的危險,但吳採用的一些舉例都有邏輯問題。
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例如,談到主持人的費用為何如此高時,他舉了一個例,就是九孔跟湯姆克魯斯的酬勞不可相提並論。當然無法比較,一個是台灣人,一個是美國人,一個是綜藝節目演員,一個是電影演員,雖然同樣是藝人,但身處的環境、媒體、產業都不同,這叫錯誤類比。吳宗憲透過這個例子,進而講解主持人的不可取代性,但如果反過來推論,叫湯姆克魯斯來台灣演全民大悶鍋可以嗎?按照吳的理論,湯姆克魯斯是無法取代九孔的,那麼湯姆克魯斯可以領天價高薪這件事情就顯得不合理。所以,吳宗憲的言論具有邏輯謬誤的問題。
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反觀馮光遠的言論,由於太堅持語意邏輯的正確,動不動就想要抓人語病,也的確吳宗憲的言論中有很多的邏輯漏洞,他都抓到了,卻反而顯得強詞奪理,這點從他酸吳宗憲台灣的內地是南投這點就可以發現。
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所以有趣的點就在這裡,到底是用最直覺的方式來傳達概念好?還是利用邏輯推理出一個正確的結論好?但就這次的激辯來看,政論節目就是利用談話來針對議題彼此討論,在快節奏的對談中,能否用最迅速的方式傳遞概念才是重點,而到底有沒有一個正確結論也顯得未必那麼重要了。
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<iframe width="400" height="225" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vkzXeclBIqo" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-31165367323059143512015-09-16T21:52:00.000+08:002015-09-20T21:58:40.642+08:00南港瓶蓋工廠要拆了。<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<p>南港瓶蓋工廠要拆了。</p>
<p>大概3年前,跟朋友在這裡辦了音樂祭。當時為什麼會選擇這個破爛的廢墟辦活動,講穿了就兩個字:沒錢。我們當時的規劃是舉辦一個500人左右的活動,然而台北市卻沒有一個合適大小的場地,普通的LIVEHOUSE太小,體育場又太大,公園的申請作業時間又太冗長。其實最適合的空間就是華山,可是我們根本就無力負擔華山的租金。</p>
<p>在台北市,私人經營的小型展演空間很多,公營的大型展演空間也有,但就欠缺中型空間。偏偏這種中型空間卻都被財團把持,所以不論華山還是松菸,裏面都塞滿了一些具有票房保證的展覽。商業很重要,我們在辦音樂祭的時候也不想虧錢,一個虧錢的活動絕對沒有長期存活的空間,但當展覽或活動只是一昧向商業靠攏時,卻會扼殺市場的可能性。</p>
<p>3年過去了,我們還是一樣租不起華山,但南港瓶蓋工廠要拆了,有名的LIVEHOUSE也倒了幾間,市面反而興起了在咖啡廳或風格店家進行店面表演或店面展覽的風氣,但有些店家說穿也並沒有想要經營些什麼東西,僅是想利用這些事物來讓自己多賣幾杯咖啡、幾件衣服。乍看之下像是一股風潮,但我實在看不出來這可以讓什麼新事物誕生。</p>
<p>我不認為將瓶蓋工廠保留讓其他人辦活動才是最好的解決辦法,畢竟該拆就拆,都市也需要活化的空間。但缺乏創新,才是目前社會真正該注意的事情。</p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-76971337091026017272012-10-19T03:18:00.001+08:002012-10-19T03:20:10.353+08:00電競升學 甜美的陷阱<br />
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">電競勁旅「台北暗殺星」勇奪世界冠軍,轟動全國,為士氣低落已久的台灣社會作了最好的示範,更證明台灣的年輕人正用自己的方式衝向上一代無法想像的境界。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br />Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-60584861042821808432012-10-08T04:33:00.001+08:002012-10-08T04:36:20.469+08:00從《富豪刑事》談故事中的「贈與者」角色<br />
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">《富豪刑事》是筒井康隆在</span><span lang="EN-US">1978</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年發表的推理短篇系列作品,內容是關於一名家中超級富有的刑警–神谷大助,每次在案情陷入膠著時,就會提出天馬行空的辦案手法,誘出犯人,而每次的辦案,都是靠父親神谷喜久右衛門提供的金錢援助才能解決,因此神谷大助又被同僚戲稱為「富豪刑事」。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">這部小說在</span><span lang="EN-US">2005</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年的時候改編為同名的日劇,而主角從神谷大助變成深田恭子飾演的神谷美和子,雖然性別不同,但故事的核心不變,同樣都是神谷喜久右衛門提供金錢上的協助來破案。不過,日劇中神谷喜久右衛門卻是美和子的爺爺,秘書也叫鈴木松江(原作是濱田鈴江),說不定日劇有隱藏的設定吧。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">在這部作品中,神谷喜久右衛門占有舉足輕重的角色。喜久右衛門在年輕的時候,幹了各種壞事大發橫財,年老時開始懺悔,決定將自身的財富投身在打擊犯罪之中,並且希望能夠散盡家財。依據普羅普在故事形態學中的論點,神谷喜久右衛門的角色,是所謂的「贈與者」。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">在童話故事中,贈與者的角色,具有贈與主角魔幻工具前往冒險旅途的功能,比方說賜與蒼鷹、駿馬或帆船。在富豪刑事中,喜久右衛門便是贈與大助</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">或美和子</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">資產,以解決案件。所以它們之間的對應關係是這樣的:巫師(贈與者)–喜久右衛門、魔幻工具–喜久右衛門的資產、冒險旅途–刑事案件。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">贈與者為什麼要幫助主角?在《富豪刑事》中,除了密切的血緣關係外,贈與者與主角的目標有重疊是關鍵的原因。因為神谷大助是一名打擊犯罪的刑警,正好與一心贖罪的神谷喜久右衛門立場一致。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不過,贈與者出場的時機,往往都在派遣者之後。神谷大助接收到派遣者(提出任務的人,每一回都不同,但都是警局中的專案小組上司)的任務後,經過一番研究,想出了作戰計劃,然後喜久右衛門才會提出援助的內容。所以由此可知,贈與者不會是推動劇情發展的力量(動機),但是缺乏贈與者卻無法延續劇情,贈與者是被動的。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">贈與者提供的魔幻工具,專門用來前往冒險旅途,但如何駕馭工具,卻由主角決定。喜久右衛門每次的提議(其實有點身兼智慧老人的功能),大助一開始都不見得會接受(每次一開始就接受提議的是大雄,不過最後都還是會拿哆啦</span><span lang="EN-US">a</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">夢的道具亂來),仍然是經過謹慎思考之後,才提出需要的作法與支援。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">在大部份的作品中,贈與者與主角之間的關係,近似於父子,如金庸作品中出現傳授主角武功者,而《富豪刑事》也不例外。不過,贈與者的動機到劇情結束時能否得到滿足,則是另外一回事。在〈富豪刑事的秘室〉中,最後的結局就是沒有達成贈與者的目的,因為喜久右衛門本來希望能夠把錢花光,結果虛設的假公司反而業績蒸蒸日上,遲早會成為國際大企業。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">富豪刑事的有趣地方,就在於贈與者與主角之間的關係,或許這個作品名,指的不是富豪的刑事,而是富豪與刑事。雖然乍看之下,都是主角砸錢在辦案,但真正能解決案件的關鍵,還是主角的觀察與推理能力,所以這也是《富豪刑事》日劇第二部劇情缺乏魅力的原因,它將案件的解決方式淺化為設陷阱誘使犯人上當,魔幻工具(巨額金錢)只是前往旅途的工具,而非解決案件的關鍵,不過或許這也跟日劇的操作形式有關。</span></div>
Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-89815844939140973882012-07-23T13:36:00.002+08:002012-07-23T13:39:57.082+08:00台灣動漫 有沒有好的主題曲?<br />
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">在</span><st1:chsdate day="17" islunardate="False" isrocdate="False" month="7" w:st="on" year="2012"><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">17</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">日</span></st1:chsdate><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">的金漫獎頒獎典禮記者會現場,正當所有人屏息以待典禮的開始,一首日本的動畫主題曲從喇叭中傳出,怎麼回事?這不是獎勵台灣原創漫畫的競賽嗎?選這首曲子豈不是「政治不正確」?文化部長<st1:personname productid="龍應台" w:st="on">龍應台</st1:personname>女士事後發表了評論:「應做反省,撇開愛國主義不提,台灣的動漫產業有沒有夠好的主題曲?」</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">不論是宮崎駿的《崖上的波妞》主題曲,或是知名電視動畫《新世紀福音戰士》改編自爵士名曲《</span><span lang="EN-US">Fly me to the moon</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">》的片尾曲,都具有足以傳唱全球的實力,而能夠能夠傳頌一時的動漫主題曲,通常都是透過電視或電影媒體流傳。因此,在檢討台灣的動漫產業是否有優秀的主題曲之前,必須要討論的是台灣是否有優秀的影視動畫作品。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">國片經歷慘澹經營之後,近年再度起飛,呈現朝氣蓬勃的景象。不過,市面上偶爾推出動畫電影,但是票房普遍不理想,而動畫電影的製作人卻往往歸咎於台灣的觀眾已被日本動漫洗腦,在此必須指出,票房不理想的狀況並非單純市場口味的問題,而是作品的視覺呈現根本就粗糙無比。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">為什麼國片能夠起飛?那是因為台灣本土的電影人才,終於正視長久以來國片「以藝術性為藉口,逃避商業性不足」的問題,因此意識到必須打造具有商品價值的電影,在經歷過一連串的嘗試之後,終於成功。同樣的道理,國內的動畫電影,也不能夠以市場口味作為理由,逃避自身水準的不足。若是日式作品才是台灣觀眾的喜好,那麼迪士尼或皮克斯出產的動畫,理應遭受票房慘敗;片商引進的日本動畫電影,也應該會有可觀的票房收益。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">除此之外,政府若要輔導動畫的製作上映,就勢必要將動畫納入流行影視的範疇之內。因為優秀的動畫人才,大多是優秀的影視人才,以製片、編導、後製、行銷來說,都有其相通處。《料理鼠王》的導演</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial;">Brad Bird</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">,就拍出了賣座電影《不可能的任務</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">:鬼影行動》;日本動畫《小紅豆》的編劇秋元康,一手打造出侵襲亞洲的少女團體「</span><span lang="EN-US">AKB48</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">」。但很可惜的是,歷年來政府會努力補助電視戲劇節目、紀錄片等單元,卻從未見補助電視動畫,而電視動畫卻是跨足電影動畫之前最好的試金石。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">再回到主題曲,也就是音樂。我們台灣本土的音樂人才,如果不是參加選秀節目,就是從玩地下樂團開始起步,堅持音樂夢想的人,必須經歷一段白天打工、晚上練歌的痛苦時期,然後慢慢地累積自己的創作能量與名聲。因此,能夠初試啼聲的表演舞台變得非常重要,然而最近令人感到非常遺憾的事情,便是知名的</span><span lang="EN-US">livehouse</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">「地下社會」關閉。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">對於草創的樂團而言,「地下社會」是最重要的舞台,因為在這裡只要三首自創曲,就有登台表演的資格,而且不需要負擔任何的成本。目前國內眾多知名的樂團,都曾經在此表演。因此,「地下社會」的關閉能夠引起社會廣大的迴響,原因就在此,這是國內音樂人才的苗床,也是如家一般的棲身地。雖然「地下社會」有其法規上的問題,但長久以來並沒有正面解決問題的核心,用疊床架屋的方式「變通」處理,也難怪今天發生了如此令人惋惜的事件。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">「台灣的動漫產業有沒有夠好的主題曲?」在這一句短短的抱怨中,可是包含了不少層面的複雜問題!文創產業,迫切需要的不是輔導金,而是能夠扶植新生代人才的友善環境。唯有人才備出,才能夠互相競爭,從而產生高水準的文創產品。</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">【刊載於2012年7月23日 蘋果日報論壇版】</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;"><br /></span></div>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-71083843242960928322012-06-17T21:11:00.001+08:002012-06-17T21:11:54.343+08:00D機關:如何創作系列短篇小說─人物設定篇<br />
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">一般由短篇單元構成的系列小說,都會由一個主題進行人物與情節的擴展,例如九把刀的《殺手》系列,就是各式各樣性格鮮明的殺手所發生的故事。但《</span><span lang="EN-US">D</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">機關》並非是各種類型的間諜在爭奇鬥豔,反而是同一類型的人物進行冒險。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">《</span><span lang="EN-US">D</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">機關》中登場的情報員,幾乎都沒有明顯的個性特徵。或許這與故事中對間諜的要求有關,作者主張間諜不能夠有太強烈的存在感,必須有路人般的面容。或許是這點緣故,所以作者並不特別描述每一位情報員的喜好與性格。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">情報員的姓名,反而成為了敘事符號。不論是「三好」、「蒲生」還是「伊澤」,似乎都可以直接替換成「主角」兩個字,名字的功能只剩下用來來區別不同的人物,無法帶來更多的資訊與內涵。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">間諜們的共通點,就是都曾在結城中校的底下受訓。用某個角度來看,這些間諜們似乎可視作結城中校的複製人,因為他們擁有一樣的價值觀、一樣的行動準則以及近似的能力。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">只有在〈</span><span lang="EN-US">XX</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">〉與〈黑鳥〉中登場的飛崎與仲根,因為劇情的關係,才提起他們的過去歷史,但個性特徵卻是千篇一律的「自尊心強烈、難以馴服」。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">所以在這邊可以提出一個看法,在設定登場的情報員時,作者一開始就設計好一枚<b>如同素體般的人物原型</b>,過往的背景設定與各種假身份的資料,成為了加掛在素體上的符號。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">結城中校是故事中少數會詳細描述外表特徵的人物,他有著清瘦的身材,右手戴著白手套,如同從傳說故事中出現的惡魔,在過去曾經差點因為任務失敗而喪命。雖然如此,仍然可以將結城中校視為是這些符號的集合體。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">同樣的,對於登場的陸軍軍官,也有其素體的設定,大體上不脫性格迂腐遲鈍、具有貪婪野心,姓名與階級只是區別不同角色的符號。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">在〈</span><span lang="EN-US">Double Joker</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">〉中創辦風機關的風戶中校,正是典型的範例。雖然模仿</span><span lang="EN-US">D</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">機關的一舉一動,但本質上仍然是陸軍的軍官,他的行為違反了第一規則身為間諜必須拋棄軍人應有的作為)與第三規則(不可殺人),因此在與</span><span lang="EN-US">D</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">機關的競爭中註定落敗。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">回過頭來看,作者柳廣司在創作《</span><span lang="EN-US">D</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">機關》時,並非聚焦在角色的魅力與演出,而是計謀之間的競技,間諜們如何將環境限制轉化為對自己有利的佈局,而誰來擔任間諜的角色好像都沒有太大差異。</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-80764210330583479762012-06-17T04:24:00.001+08:002012-06-17T04:25:16.457+08:00D機關:如何創作系列短篇小說─世界觀篇<br />
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">大部份的系列小說,都以人物或情節的串連作為構成方式,但《</span><span lang="EN-US">D</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">機關》卻不行此道。《</span><span lang="EN-US">D</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">機關》系列短篇的主角都是不同人,唯一的共通點,每一位都是結城中校所訓練出來的間諜。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">在世界觀的設定上,可以分成兩個層面來討論,分別是故事背景與理想的間諜類型。《</span><span lang="EN-US">D</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">機關》的世界觀非常明確,在眾多的推理–間諜類型中獨樹一格。間諜小說常被視為推理類型的一大分支,這個類型的敘事方式,往往是由主角的行動來解決知識問題(謎底)。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">但推理類型必須奠基於寫實,而傳統的間諜類型又普遍傾向於將舞台設定於現實歷史,因此《</span><span lang="EN-US">D</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">機關》將故事時代設定在二次大戰前夕。當年的日本陸軍普遍認為,諜報作戰非常卑鄙無恥,不符合光明正大的作戰原則,再加上常年施行的天皇洗腦教育,但情報員若要在社會的陰暗處自由活動,則必須<b>否定軍人的信條</b>,這樣的衝突就構成了這部作品的世界觀。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">世界觀指的就是整體時代背景,也可以換個角度來說,主角們如何看待這個時代,以及如何在這個時代下行動,傳統軍人(時代環境)與特務間諜(主角)之間的對立,就是故事背景的外在框架。因此這產生出了第一規則:<b>聽到天皇的名字時不可立正</b>,這條規則說明了身為間諜必須拋棄軍人應有的作為。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">在〈</span><span lang="EN-US">Joker Game</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">〉中,就設計了一名來自陸軍內部的角色佐久間,透過這名角色描述</span><span lang="EN-US">D</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">機關的生態,以外在的角度來帶領讀者進入</span><span lang="EN-US">D</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">機關的世界。從這邊也可以窺見本書的敘述設計,每一篇章的敘事觀點,必定不是謎底核心人物。讀者只能隨著敘述者的獨白,逐漸解開謎底。</span><b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">敘述方式導致了第二條規則的出現:<b>不被任何事物綁住,用雙眼看世界</b>。規則可以說是故事的前提,種種的機智對戰皆起因於對規則的挑戰,而挑戰規則的角色往往都沒有好下場。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">在〈</span><span lang="EN-US">XX</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">〉與〈黑鳥〉中,這兩篇的主角分別就是懷有私心,所以無法客觀看待任務,被過去的回憶所牽制,因此導向錯誤的推論,最終迎向失敗。所以理想的間諜必須要撇開各種心理陷阱,專注在任務成功。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">理想的間諜,有其行為標準,為了讓任務順利成功,產生了第三條規則:<b>不可殺人、死亡、被逮捕</b>。這樣的行為準則,故事中有其說明,也連帶催生了主角們的行動。在〈魯賓遜〉中,伊澤便是基於這條準則而脫逃,而〈</span><span lang="EN-US">Double Joker</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">〉、〈蒼蠅王〉敘述的就是違反這個規則的下場。</span></div>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-16797777156867466292009-08-23T23:18:00.005+08:002009-08-23T23:30:04.341+08:00惡棍特工:電影究竟為誰而服務<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpViSx-JuX4Wx9opptWKRwu9iKrJwvLd-Iyvf6RUF7WPjyUnOxqDHqj2cUcr3-ADs1vRo8Dr0vYtqBFnPunXSFTtRU5YMvrb4WLh2ZnhJKukqjS9XxrRXix9jYn-tbWDbeM50CTewdQom-/s1600-h/3813946061_6ca6594881.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 262px; height: 375px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpViSx-JuX4Wx9opptWKRwu9iKrJwvLd-Iyvf6RUF7WPjyUnOxqDHqj2cUcr3-ADs1vRo8Dr0vYtqBFnPunXSFTtRU5YMvrb4WLh2ZnhJKukqjS9XxrRXix9jYn-tbWDbeM50CTewdQom-/s320/3813946061_6ca6594881.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5373180091871912642" border="0" /></a><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /><span style="font-size:130%;">今天看完了《惡棍特工》,只能說我看了真得很HIGH!<br />裡面很多挖洞給人跳的婊人情節,也有很機敏的幽默對話,導演坤丁塔倫提諾甚至還直接演了一段他的成名老橋給觀眾看看,反正好橋不怕用嘛。總之,這些東西都是逗得我哈哈大笑,甚至讓我覺得拍得比追殺比爾還好看!<br /><br />比較少有觀眾注意到的,除了賣弄一些機智對談外,故事中還稍稍引用了電影史作為故事的基底,與其說這是一部在談復仇的電影,其實某方面也看得出昆丁對電影媒體的一些思考。<br /><br />光是從故事中的背景,就可以看出一些端倪。<br />劇中主要登場的國家有德國、法國、美國(雖然英國也有登場,但是一下就掛了,英國佬的登場比較像是讓人來嘲弄的一樣,所以不列入討論),這三國都是發展電影文化已有一定水準的國家。<br />在劇中,透過人物的台詞也說明了各國對電影的態度。<br />女主角蘇珊娜講了,「法國人尊敬任何的電影導演」,這段台詞雖有討好法國觀眾之嫌,但也明白表示法國對電影的敬重。德國軍官說,「要把那些猶太人拍的假德國電影趕出去」,便拍攝了一系列宣揚德國威能的政治電影,「開創德國電影的新紀元」。美國呢?雖然劇中角色並沒有提到對本國電影的觀感,但是這部電影是美國人拍的,而且還是個熱愛B級片的導演拍的,我想這足以代表了某些事情。<br /><br />德國,早年以表現主義的風格聞名於世,到了第三帝國時期,電影成為了為政治服務的媒體。在劇中,德國人拍了一部《祖國的驕傲》,內容是帥哥二等兵在高塔上大顯神威幹掉三百名敵人。實際上,確實有幾部類似在展現德國榮耀的電影,其中一部知名的叫《奧林匹亞》,它的內容是在講1936年柏林奧運德國選手如何在運動場上展現主角威能,而其他國家只能吃鱉,因此電影中的影像剪輯非常明顯地偏心,只要是德國選手奪金,就有很長的段落來描述,但是輪到別國的選手,就只有短短的幾秒鐘,而且大多是跌個狗吃屎的出糗畫面。<br />很明顯,這就是給德國人看爽的片。<br />同樣的片,還有《意志的勝利》等。<br /><br /><object height="344" width="425"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/GcFuHGHfYwE&hl=zh_TW&fs=1&"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/GcFuHGHfYwE&hl=zh_TW&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" height="344" width="425"></embed></object><br /><br />法國,是電影誕生的國度,每年舉辦的坎城影展具有極高的水準,後來也出現了楚浮、高達等電影鬼才。可想而知,法國這片土地對於電影有多麼深厚的情感。在劇中,導演大膽地將歷史改寫成德國占領法國這件事,是在暗示這股勢力(德國)的邪惡,並非只是屠殺猶太人這麼單純,而是控制言論,箝制創作自由。可想而知這對電影人而言是多麼地罪大惡極。<br />B級片中的瘋狂殺手在這裡的意涵竟反轉為英雄角色,以B級片的手段(各種異想天開的虐殺、刑求等)來教訓拍愛國影片的壞人,就成為了非常重要的一個議題。<br /><br />這部片因此成為了一場「B級片趣味VS國家宣導片」的政治辯證。<br />以服務的觀眾來看,B級片的觀眾追求的是一場場異色奇景,是一種所謂的「壞品味」;國家宣導片的觀眾追求的是政治正確的主題,在這前題之下盡情地展現祖國的榮耀。這兩者背後皆有一種看似立場相反,實則本質相似的意識形態在運作。<br />電影的最後一段,希特勒在電影院中觀看《祖國的驕傲》,看到電影中的主角開槍殺人就拼命叫爽;某方面而言,也等同於觀眾在看《惡棍特工》時,劇中的美國特工殘殺德軍,觀眾忍不住因故事的黑色幽默而發出笑聲一般。<br />希特勒與電影觀眾,竟因此疊合了起來。<br />所以電影究竟為誰而服務?<br /><br />我們跟一直傻笑的希特勒沒兩樣啊,只是殺手們哪管那麼多,看誰不爽就把誰宰了,而且頂多被臭罵一頓而已。</span><br /><br /></span>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-86874769652902870452009-05-30T00:10:00.006+08:002009-05-30T00:34:48.070+08:00失樂園:談背景設定的合理性<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdU2k-fjHZT_loQI1x0mUW2FYM5Jdk_7D5lhAq7ckKek8JST0Kz5JDUuHOgFKLE-J82ijEiHaMBEqzLko6yC9aP2LHXj4rtfE_iwndHV0Mlj_kEkQCS7kHeHedRJFf00WzKrk6OwRfe2WL/s1600-h/1243517450574.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 290px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdU2k-fjHZT_loQI1x0mUW2FYM5Jdk_7D5lhAq7ckKek8JST0Kz5JDUuHOgFKLE-J82ijEiHaMBEqzLko6yC9aP2LHXj4rtfE_iwndHV0Mlj_kEkQCS7kHeHedRJFf00WzKrk6OwRfe2WL/s400/1243517450574.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5341281191841755682" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><br />這部漫畫的劇情元素看人很容易聯想到少女革命,故事是說在一座人工島上,有一間由某超級財團經營的校園「艾托比亞學園」,創辦人的辦校理念是「男尊女卑」,因此女學生並不被當成人對待,而是物品,但是男學生可以透過決鬥來奪取女學生的所有權。有這麼奇怪價值觀的學校,所有的人都忌憚背後財團的勢力,從這間學校畢業的男學生未來可在財團中擔任要職,因此沒有人敢反抗這個遊戲規則。財團底下有一個玩具開發公司,所以這間學校決鬥的方式,應用了玩具公司開發出來的高科技對戰系統,決鬥的男生們可以將女學生化為武器來作戰,戰勝者可以奪取戰敗者的武器,也就是說,把女人都搶過來變成自己的後宮。<br /><br />故事的主角是一個名叫緋本空的女生,立志成為守護女性的騎士。剛轉進這間學校,無法接受艾托比亞學園的遊戲規則,為了保護受男同學欺負的女生,而開始與男同學決鬥,展開了她的騎士之路。<br /><br />這樣的劇情設定,乍看之下很合理,但仔細去想就會發現很多矛盾。最關鍵的,就是「男尊女卑」這個概念,怎麼看都讓人無法接受這個世界上會有這麼樣的一間學校,講得超過一點,簡直就像是H-GAME中才會出現的世界。<br /><br />這個故事到底是哪裡無法說服人呢?男尊女卑的確存在於這個世界,同樣的如果有一間超級財團能夠控制輿論或是抹煞個人也非常合理,如果說女學生因為恐懼而不敢告訴家裡也說得過去,更不用提決鬥遊戲的設定了。<br />問題來了,一切的一切,都找得到理由去解釋,但就是不知道哪裡怪怪的。<br />真正無法說服人的理由,就是這間學園擺明了是非常超現實的封閉環境,可是故事中卻試圖用現實世界的邏輯去說明它的合理性,光是這點就無法令人信服。<br /><br />這就是世界系作品的盲點,一切的環境設定都只為一個概念在打轉。<br />以福音戰士為例,這個世界觀就是主角內心的影射:使徒是一次又一次想來撬開主角心房的心理治療師,人類補完計劃就是心理治療的下場(與人無隔閡),而駕駛福音戰士這件事則又是關於伊底帕斯情結與離-返關係的隱喻。當然,福音戰士又引用了宗教符號這些東西來掩人耳目,這又是另一回事了。<br />但是像福音戰士這樣的世界觀並不會被質疑。<br />在失樂園中,「男尊女卑」只是反派所必須具備的邪惡理由,為了這個理由,所以搞出了一間變相實行奴隸制度的學校,為了強化合理性,所以這間學校是由超級財團所管理…一切的設定,都只是在無限上綱合理化這個概念而已。<br /><br />故事要讓人信服,重點在於合理,分成情節的合理與設定的合理,而這篇文章專門討論背景設定的合理。<br /><br />死亡筆記本的基本設定就是「死神使用筆記本殺人」,code geass的基本設定就是「geass可以任意使喚人」,超人的基本設定就是「超人會飛,具有怪力」,其實這些設定,都無法用現實世界的知識與觀念來檢視,因為這是故事的基本概念,但是這些都是超現實的設定,因此並不需要以現實的知識去作為基礎。所以死亡筆記本就設定了「死神」這種生物的存在;code geass雖然提到是上古的遺產,卻沒有詳細交代geass的來源,而超人是外星人,所以會飛也是很合理的(XD)。重點是,這些理由,都不存在於現實,所以根本不怕被人檢視。<br /><br />若一但以現實知識去解釋的話,一方面會成為複雜的知識問題,讓故事變得沉悶(畢竟讀者想看的是情節的發展),另一方面則是經不起現實知識的檢驗。就算是007去查鈾原料,最後也是在阻止核彈發射,而不是在解釋核彈的製作原理。<br /><br />有一種可能會讓這個知識問題成為劇情核心,那就是這個設定成為了劇情謎團的重點,但在這類超自然的設定故事中,是一個大忌。所以死筆很巧妙地避開了「為了避免下一個犧牲者的產生,必須調查死亡筆記本的產生原因」這個劇情發展方向,而是直接證明死亡筆記本這種不可思議的東西的確存在於世界上。<br /><br />一個封閉環境中特殊的性別文化,是近年ACG常見的故事設定,雖然這並非是一個很超自然的故事,但是仍然是超現實的。所以真得要解套的話,直接將他設定成徹底封閉的空間也許會好一點。超現實的設定無法用現實的邏輯產生合理性,如果失樂園這部漫畫設定成架空的奇幻世界,看起來至少不會那麼牽強。</span>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-74499018249735739002009-05-21T05:26:00.002+08:002009-05-21T05:30:05.251+08:00尼崎兒童暴行事件<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/WfKVR1a-rYc&hl=zh_TW&fs=1"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/WfKVR1a-rYc&hl=zh_TW&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><br />這是一件發生在2006年11月,日本兵庫縣尼崎市的社會案件。<br /><br />有幾個小學四年級的男生,看了AV之後,就將同班的女生約到其中一個男孩子的家中予以性侵,這些男生事後看到這女孩子還會腳踢、扔石頭,作出種種欺凌的動作。後來這個女生,把這件事情向好友訴苦,輾轉傳到了班導師的耳中,整件事情才爆發出來。一個月後,女方家長終於跟帶頭的男方家長在學校的校長室見面,結果經過三天毫無交集的討論,最後男方母親終於同意賠償女方搬家的費用,原本以為事件到此結束,可是–<br /><br />男方母親同意賠償的隔天,男方父親卻通報警方,控告女方母親恐嚇。整起事件,不論是校方、市立教育委員會、PTA都沒有為此事作出任何的反應,也沒有為女童進行心理輔導,被控告以後,男方再也不曾與女方家庭有聯絡,這件事情就這樣不了了之。<br /><br />後來,這些小孩仍然在同一間小學中上課。<br /><br /></span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><br />女方是單親家庭,只有母親與女兒共同生活,在社會上屬於相當弱勢,每一個層級的教育單位都互相推卸責任,並不願意插手處理。<br /><br />而這件事情的複雜層面,在於加害者與被害者同樣都是未成年人,因此在法律上無法懲處,再加上日本少年法的規定,新聞媒體報導不可公布未成年犯的真名與長相,所以這起事件並沒有獲得媒體的關注。<br /><br />因此,這位女童的母親想到了一個辦法,就是在網路上動員網友的力量,將「尼崎児童暴行事件」這個關鍵字送上日本樂天網站(http://www.infoseek.co.jp/),同時也在2ch跟mixi這兩個社群網站張貼了討論串,試圖用這樣的方式,喚醒大眾媒體對這起事件的注意。<br /><br /></span><br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/RNSSAhGvz8s&hl=zh_TW&fs=1"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/RNSSAhGvz8s&hl=zh_TW&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><br />一周以後,很順利地達成了熱門關鍵字的第一名,然而卻被樂天判定為「不正檢索」,系統將這個搜尋結果列為不正常,也就是說失敗了。因此將戰局轉向GOO網站(http://www.goo.ne.jp/),並且將關鍵字改為「尼崎」「事件」「教育委員會」「いじめ」「小學校」等字。因為之前唯一一間電視節目MOVE有報導過這件事,所以發動網友投書,要求電視公司延伸報導。</span><br /><br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/wJKT3xtKZx0&hl=zh_TW&fs=1"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/wJKT3xtKZx0&hl=zh_TW&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><br />這到底算是利用網友發動私刑?還是合理的反擊?我一直都覺得這具有很曖昧的討論空間。<br /><br />因為法律的規定,所以加害者有了被保護的縫隙,而受害者卻無法發洩怨恨與怒氣。如果是在台灣的話,肯定早就有鄉民把加害者的身家資料都給挖出來了吧!</span>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-64771888276417102332009-03-29T15:38:00.003+08:002009-03-29T15:42:52.688+08:00關於網路影視的雜談<span style="font-size:130%;">跟不來恩在plurk上聊了一些關於網路影視這一個領域的事,將心得整理如下:<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">1.傳統媒體的產業分工</span><br /><br />國內的電視節目內容,分成頻道商與製作公司,製作公司作好節目,賣給頻道播出,然後頻道將廣告時段賣出獲利。這是一個已經建立完整的產業分工,結構如下<br /><br /></span><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size:130%;">【廣告主】<br />販賣商品以獲利,因此進行行銷企劃<br />↓<br />【廣告代理商】<br />接受廣告主的委託進行廣告企劃<br />↓<br />【媒體採購公司】<br />依照代理商訴求客群挑選合適的媒體平台<br />↓<br />【頻道商】<br />販賣廣告時段以獲利,但好的廣告時段仰賴好的節目內容<br />↓<br />【製作單位】<br />製作節目內容吸引觀眾目光,收視率越高,收入越好<br />↓<br />【觀眾】<br />看到廣告之後採取行動<br /></span></div><span style="font-size:130%;"><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">2. 媒體的本質</span><br /><br />電視台為什麼不開放節目到網路上給大家看呢?因為媒體是一種具有獨占性、排他性的東西,若將頻道中的節目開放到網路上,將失去頻道的優勢。就算開放了,也頂多開放已經失去剩餘價值的老舊節目。<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">3. 網路影視的現狀<br /><br /></span>先撇開業餘者的自製內容,單以帶有商業自覺的節目來講,目前大部份會製播網路節目的,目前為主知名的有巴哈姆特、癮科技、VOGUE、聚財網、天下雜誌、YOOLER。大部份的節目單位,都是本身在自己的專業領域已有一片天下,在這片基礎下,才投入網路節目的製作。也就是說,這些單位本身就已有豐沛的題材,再加上拿出一小部份的盈收,就能夠支撐起節目的延續。<br />唯一的例外,就是YOOLER。YOOLER是以美少女與KUSO搞笑為主題的網路節目起家,雖然點閱率高,但不知道是否因為營收的關係,近來已轉型成購物頻道。<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">4. 營收在哪裡?</span><br /><br />媒體的營收一向來自於影響力,影響力越大,表示營運績效越好,也越有本錢去談廣告收入。<br /><br />大部份傳統的製作公司有個弱點,就是只能製作節目,卻無法去直接拉廣告,所以很多都是以接案的方式在工作。說是弱點有點過份,因為分工型態已經成型,畢竟製作公司的專業在於節目的攝製,而有能力拉廣告的則是頻道代理商。<br /><br />如果拿近來最夯的部落格經濟來說的話,最具代表性的人物莫過於彎彎與九把刀這些靠網路闖出名號的人,他們擅長創作出膾炙人口的作品,但是能夠讓他們溫飽的,還是有出版社願意養他們。如果讓製作公司的身份,挪移到類似部落客的地位,那將會面臨到的就是成本支出的現實問題。<br /><br />不論是彎彎或九把刀,都在成名之前就已經開始製作自己的作品,在這個階段他們有自己的工作可以穩定生活,同時畫圖或寫文章都不需要付出高額的成本。但是以一個專業的製作團隊而言,是需要付出成本去維持的。<br />目前網路影視的產業結構尚未發展完整的,原本分工明確的結構,可能是被簡化成像我畫的圖這樣:<br /></span><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size:130%;"><br />【廣告主】<br />販賣商品以獲利,因此進行行銷企劃<br />↓<br />【廣告代理商】<br />接受廣告主的委託進行廣告企劃<br />↓<br />【製作單位】<br />製作節目內容吸引網友目光,點閱率越高,收入越好<br />↓<br />【網友】<br />看到廣告之後採取行動<br /></span></div><span style="font-size:130%;"><br />製作團隊若真要能賺到錢(起碼也要能打平維持運作),有可能是下列幾種狀況:<br /><br />(1) 讓自己的節目被廣告商所看上<br />(2) 直接接觸廣告主,量身訂作專屬的行銷影片,或在節目中置入性行銷<br />(3) 乾脆自己直接在節目中賣東西<br />(4) 效法出版品,將自己的節目內容集結成光碟發行<br /><br />不管怎麼說,這個製作單位勢必要具備一定程度的業務交涉能力。<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">5. 未來可能的發展方向</span><br /><br />未來會不會有更多人投入這個領域?這是肯定的,但以目前的不景氣,大部份人應該仍然保守以對。<br /><br />以目前來看的話,最缺乏的就是一個平台的建立,這並非說是要去燒錢蓋一個YOUTUBE、IMTV或是JOOST,而是說一個類似頻道商的身份,整合起流程,建立一個產業鍊的雛型。只要建立起來,就有可能一堆人跟進。<br /><br />但是整合工作是最難,也是最複雜的事情,到那一天來臨前,相信還有很漫長的路需要走。</span>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-45273749233250732152009-02-22T21:46:00.005+08:002009-02-23T03:49:41.879+08:00to be a terrioist<meta equiv="Content-Type" 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<w:useasianbreakrules/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> <w:usefelayout/> </w:Compatibility> <w:browserlevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" latentstylecount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><style> <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:新細明體; panose-1:2 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0; mso-font-alt:PMingLiU; mso-font-charset:136; mso-generic-font-family:roman; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:3 137232384 22 0 1048577 0;} @font-face {font-family:"\@新細明體"; panose-1:2 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0; mso-font-charset:136; mso-generic-font-family:roman; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:3 137232384 22 0 1048577 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0cm; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:none; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:新細明體; mso-font-kerning:1.0pt;} /* Page Definitions */ @page {mso-page-border-surround-header:no; mso-page-border-surround-footer:no;} @page Section1 {size:612.0pt 792.0pt; margin:72.0pt 90.0pt 72.0pt 90.0pt; mso-header-margin:36.0pt; mso-footer-margin:36.0pt; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:表格內文; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} </style> <![endif]--> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >我越來越能夠理解恐怖份子的想法了。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >
<br /></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >在鋼彈</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:100%;">00</span><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >的故事中,天上人是一群超脫於所有國家的武裝組織,介由武力介入的方式,來終止地上的戰爭,進而促使地球統一。什麼是武力介入?那就是趁戰爭發生時,利用鋼彈來摧毀雙方的武器,使戰爭打不下去。他們的作法被引發了批評與討論,甚至在任務進行時,不小心誤傷無辜。隨著劇情進展,地球也真得如計劃中統一了起來成為地球聯邦政府,然而卻衍生出了法西斯集團</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:100%;">ALAWS</span><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >,這是一支極特殊的軍隊,用來鏟除反對統一聲浪的想法,因為地上仍然有一群人,了解到所謂的地球聯邦,不過就是舊勢力的頂端政權,假藉統一與和平的大義,來進行資源與權力的掠奪。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >
<br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >鋼彈</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:100%;">00</span><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >劇中有一個事件,便反映了這樣的狀況。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >
<br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >在第二部,聯邦軍中有一群軍人,認為聯邦政府早已被</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:100%;">ALAWS</span><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >把持住,由於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:100%;">ALAWS</span><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >擅長情報操作,因此一般百姓完全沒有意識到這點。他們討論出的作法,就是蓄意挾持太空電梯中的六萬名民眾,讓這些民眾了解到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:100%;">ALAWS</span><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >的危險,進而將這個想法散播出去。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >
<br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >這個主意乍聽之下相當危險,但仔細思考後就會瞭解這種作法自然有其用意。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >
<br /></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >讓我們回到這個現實世界,恐怖份子</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:100%;">(terrorist)</span><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >這個字眼指的是利用恐怖或恐懼來操弄群眾以達成目標,最先是被布希政府所用來指責中東那些試圖對美國發動恐怖攻擊的回教國家,明確地指控他們是「邪惡」、「蓄意製造混亂」的激進份子,但深思之後就會發現,其實這是一種政治語言,是一種用來製造敵人的語言。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >
<br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >好好沒事的,為什麼要製造混亂呢?真得大家都是吃飽沒事幹嗎?就算是蝙蝠俠黑暗騎士中的小丑,也是自有他的目的。理由很單純,那就是這個世界有問題,這是抗議的一種手段。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >
<br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >法國是全世界擁有最悠久抗議歷史的國家,法國大革命就是那些群眾抗議到把貴族都送上斷頭台了。現在已經不是那種流血的時代了,所以他們在抗議的時候,最常用的手段就是罷工。像是火車站的員工罷工,就直接讓火車停駛,或是教師罷工,就直接停課,務在使其他的人感到不便。為什麼?那是為了讓所有人來正視這個問題,不惜犧牲和平與寧靜的生活。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >
<br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >讓我們來看看,罷工會產生什麼後遺症,首當其衝的,就是罷工者有失去工作機會的危險;其次,一個全國性的罷工,很有可能會影響社會的經濟,甚至讓國民生產毛額下降。站在資本家的立場,這是非常可怕的事情,一來可能會害自己工廠的訂單丟掉,二來則是自己公司的股價會下滑,瞬間讓財產蒸發。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >
<br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >近年因為不景氣,所以宅經濟開始掘起,導致政府試圖作些看起來很「宅」的事情來拉攏民眾,證交所出了一本漫畫在教民眾股票的基本知識,</span><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >甚至前天才在中正紀念堂辦了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:100%;">VGL</span><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >電玩音樂會。看起來好像很支持動漫界,可是仔細看活動內容卻充滿問題</span><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >,電玩音樂會的表演可說是狀況百出,可以因為免費就包容這一切問題嗎?</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >
<br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >來仔細看看</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:100%;">VGL</span><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >的問題,首先在表演吉他英雄的曲目時,原來是設計讓玩家一邊玩遊戲,樂團在一旁伴奏,可是控制的手把卻出了問題;其次,在音樂會快要結束的時候,舞台上的螢幕竟然故障當機;還有最後放煙火的時候,那個灰竟然燙到我了,我以為只有我,轉頭看旁邊的人也同樣有人被燙到。這些問題,很明顯是沒有預先順過一次才會出現的,難不成對這些公家單位來講,動漫只是一種吸引人的手段,所以就不用用心辦這個活動嗎?</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >
<br /></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >就像前面所述,如果今天國家以和平與秩序為理由作了一堆狗屁倒灶的事情,那我們可以默許政府繼續作下去嗎?如果把和平與秩序這幾個字眼,換成動漫產業就變成了「如果今天國家以促進動漫產業為理由作了一堆狗屁倒灶的事情,那我們可以默許政府繼續作下去嗎?」</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >
<br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:新細明體;font-size:100%;" >這就是問題所在了,沒必要因為政府作了一件看起來是好事的事,就睜一隻眼閉一隻眼。這種政府出錢作的活動有瑕疵,可能沒辦法靠罷工來抗議,但是可以用各種溝通管道來發生表示意見,所以說,用自己的方式成為恐怖份子表達不滿吧!</span></p> Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-58044374034241469302008-03-06T15:32:00.005+08:002008-03-06T15:47:15.653+08:00讓玩家陷入神秘的殺人村落:暮蟬鳴泣時<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6kgd8bzNZc6884Gg4Pq-kYowCXsh6xO31NwtMk_5_K0dGsyKJobwBGcPHEMAdfPDWHlaYqJpyPq-tYMDMyOp7exzFI810D3a3kAFW98uaB9q5nHvZsrD2BBu_jQ5Z_Z-diHQp6f9xKHEV/s1600-h/1498396874.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 218px; height: 309px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6kgd8bzNZc6884Gg4Pq-kYowCXsh6xO31NwtMk_5_K0dGsyKJobwBGcPHEMAdfPDWHlaYqJpyPq-tYMDMyOp7exzFI810D3a3kAFW98uaB9q5nHvZsrD2BBu_jQ5Z_Z-diHQp6f9xKHEV/s400/1498396874.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5174531442201467602" border="0" /></a><br /><div style="text-align: left;"> </div><div style="text-align: left;"> </div><span style="font-family:新細明體;">「暮蟬鳴泣時」的故事背景,正是建立在鄉野傳說上,位在日本山區的雛見澤村,相傳雛見澤的村民們是食人鬼的後代,被迫定居於雛見澤村,為了保護雛見澤村,於是代代相傳村中的居民千萬不可離開村落,離開村落者將遭到雛見澤的守護神「御社神大人」作祟。就在昭和</span><span lang="EN-US">53</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;">年,雛見澤的村民聯合抵抗水壩工程的建設,在抗爭過程中,居民將水壩工程的監工殺害,而兇手下落不明,居民們推說是「御社神大人」憤怒的結果,在「御社神大人」的怒氣平息之前,祂將持續地作祟,從此每年在這個時候,便會有「ㄧ人失蹤,ㄧ人死亡」的事件發生。</span> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;">「暮」中</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;">所描述的村莊「雛見澤」村,是以實際的村莊–日本岐阜縣白川鄉五</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;">箇山上的合掌造村落–</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;">作為參考地點的,</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;">在五十年前,此地也發生了居民對抗政府的水壩建造計畫。在這樣的基礎之上,為故事增添了一股說服力。</span> </p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;">「暮」是ㄧ款文字解謎遊戲,與「東方系列」、「月姬」並稱為同人三大奇蹟。基本上,同人一詞與其說是自費出版漫畫,倒不如說是獨立發行自己的創作品來的恰當。這三者都有共通點,第一點,他們都是電腦遊戲,並非是往常同人誌販售會上最常見的漫畫刊物;第二點,這三款遊戲都是原創內容,而且相當努力於建構屬於自己作品的世界觀。「暮蟬鳴泣時」打造出一個虛構復古的神祕村落;「東方系列」則是創造了一個融合東方妖術與西方魔法的幻想鄉,並且開放授權,讓玩家參與插畫、同人漫畫、音樂的創作,豐富了整個世界觀的樣貌;「月姬」的製作小組「</span><span lang="EN-US">TYPE-MOON</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;">」更是延續了一慣的神秘風格,衍生出「空之境界」「</span><span lang="EN-US">FATE/STAY NIGHT</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;">」等等作品,雖然各自的人物與劇情並沒有直接關聯,但是皆以同樣的複雜世界觀設定作為故事背景:一個唯心論的魔法世界。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;">「暮」嚴格講起來並不能算是遊戲,而是電子小說,玩家不能決定故事中人物的行動,而是伴隨著人物觀點,逐步在事件中發現線索。「暮」的章節有相當多,而每一個章節的主角(或說主要觀點)都不相同,每篇故事都是以平行世界的方式重新進行,每次故事角色不同的行動都會發生不同的事件與結局,玩家可以從中窺見故事的全貌。「暮」的故事相當龐大,有別於一般封閉式的敘事系統會逐步揭曉故事前景與知識問題的作法,在「暮」中,僅僅是留下線索讓玩家自行推理出真相。在有限的線索下,全玩家都在同樣情報、同樣條件下開始討論事件,結果就造成「暮」的交流網站開始盛行。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;">「暮」的故事核心,只要能抓到每一篇故事中隱含的「</span><span lang="EN-US">XYZ</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;">規則」,就能夠破解出御社神大人作祟的真相。而這規則分別是「</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;">X</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;">:主角發瘋,<span lang="EN-US">Y</span>:關鍵人物死亡,<span lang="EN-US">Z</span>:全村毀滅」。玩到最後才會瞭解,原來雛見澤的居民們是一種疾病的帶原者,這種疾病被命名為「雛見澤症候群」,症狀是精神不安定、多疑與暴力傾向,最嚴重的情況會發生幻聽、幻覺而最後患者會抓破自己的喉嚨身亡。雛見澤症候群是一種寄生蟲感染的疾病,而村落中負責祭祀的古手一家則是「女王感染者」,只有待在女王感染者的身旁,帶原者才不會發病,也因此當女王感染者身亡時,全村便會集體發作,步向毀滅。這也正解釋了雛見澤村落的御社神信仰,以及不可離開村落的傳統。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNu6nstXbBpJ_91fEXaxvdCjpJsqo0G6gRSlkdreBbUZpxv2Afx6uRVwImBwOFPCg1w6LJxDT6FeDh5Acw_p2_QzFKdfxM3GEbT59ZSro-UrzVvrQKPzb8UUjdal7ZjIxuleYER3muWiab/s1600-h/%E6%A2%A8%E8%8A%B1%E5%A5%BD%E8%90%8C.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNu6nstXbBpJ_91fEXaxvdCjpJsqo0G6gRSlkdreBbUZpxv2Afx6uRVwImBwOFPCg1w6LJxDT6FeDh5Acw_p2_QzFKdfxM3GEbT59ZSro-UrzVvrQKPzb8UUjdal7ZjIxuleYER3muWiab/s400/%E6%A2%A8%E8%8A%B1%E5%A5%BD%E8%90%8C.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5174529981912586946" border="0" /></a></p><p class="MsoNormal"> </p><p style="text-align: center;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;">↑老是卡關的古手梨花</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;">「暮」的廣受歡迎,連帶也推出了</span><span lang="EN-US">PS2</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;">遊戲、動畫、漫畫與小說,由於其章節呈現的方式,因此其他的衍生作品並不像一般的改編作,僅僅是將劇情轉換不同的媒體作出呈現,而是推出同樣世界觀的平形世界作為新篇章,讓觀眾用嶄新的觀點重新經歷一次雛見澤的神秘世界。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;"><br /></span></p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-29977299185428782742008-02-26T23:54:00.002+08:002008-02-26T23:56:34.341+08:00九把刀事件懶人包<p><br />原始出處<br />參見九把刀:2008年的第一場戰鬥<br /><a href="http://www.wretch.cc/blog/Giddens&article_id=7105280">http://www.wretch.cc/blog/Giddens&article_id=7105280</a><br />台灣論壇:陳漢寧的說明<br /><a href="http://www.twbbs.net.tw/2407276.html">http://www.twbbs.net.tw/2407276.html</a></p> <p>事件經過</p><p>陳漢寧完成了「顛倒」小說後,參加台北文學獎,被同學指抄襲九把刀,於是將文章寄給九把刀,九把刀只回應「做了什麼事情自己清楚」,陳漢寧不解,九把刀提議將文章公布讓網友評斷,但陳漢寧以參賽作品為由拒絕了九把刀。然而評審認為陳漢寧的作品並未抄襲,並頒發獎項給陳漢寧。九把刀得知後,試圖聯繫校方與陳漢寧取得聯絡,校方拒絕了九把刀的請求。陳漢寧的外婆將此事通知蘋果日報,蘋果日報卻將此事報導成九把刀打算向陳漢寧提告,卻忽略了九把刀私下尋找陳漢寧與印刻出版社的行動。在媒體的大肆渲染下,九把刀與陳漢寧各自在網路上貼出了聲明。陳漢寧堅持並未抄襲,九把刀聲稱要討回「正義」。</p> <p>爭議點<br /></p><p>1.陳漢寧堅持自己為原創,但顛倒全文與九把刀語言全文,不論是結構與語法都相當接近<br />2.九把刀的作法被評為處理過當<br />3.媒體將九把刀的行為形容為以大欺小,未完整將九把刀的行為完整報導,然而九把刀在網路上的動作,卻被質疑引發了令ㄧ波的群體暴力<br />4.公共獎項的道德瑕疵</p> <p>支持九把刀的論點</p> <p>朱學恆路西法地獄<br />孩子有狀況 大人該負責:認為陳漢寧明顯模仿九把刀,評審與學校方面過於袒護陳漢寧<br />專家不能或不願負責 就由網友來負責:發動投票,讓網友決定陳漢寧該不該獲得台北文學獎<br />新的世界根本就沒有神:解釋投票的行為,相信群眾智慧<br /><a href="http://blogs.myoops.org/">http://blogs.myoops.org/</a></p> <p>批評九把刀的論點<br /><span class="caps"></span></p><p><span class="caps">IGT</span>偵探趣味<br />說影響,其實我們都是受到大宇宙的電波的影響:認為九把刀不應該與一個中學生計較,九把刀該試著做一個文學上的前輩,態度問題<br /><a href="http://elielin.chu.jp/blog/?p=188">http://elielin.chu.jp/blog/?p=188</a></p> <p>壹蘋果網絡<br />九把刀今年的第一場戰鬥:抄襲與模仿的差異,認為九把刀引起了另一模式的集體暴力<br /><a href="http://1-apple.com.tw/apple/index.cfm?Fuseaction=Article&Sec_ID=5&ShowDate=20080223&NewsType=twapple&Loc=TP&Art_ID=30289203">http://1-apple.com.tw/apple/index.cfm?Fuseaction=Article&Sec_ID=5&ShowDate=20080223&NewsType=twapple&Loc=TP&Art_ID=30289203</a></p> <p>單純討論抄襲與模仿的問題<br />偏執18度角:九把刀維護利益,陳漢寧僥倖獲利,評審忽視創作本質<br /><a href="http://orz18.blogspot.com/2008/02/blog-post_22.html">http://orz18.blogspot.com/2008/02/blog-post_22.html</a><br /></p><p>終極邊疆<br /><a href="http://blog.serv.idv.tw/2008/02/23/780/#more-780">http://blog.serv.idv.tw/2008/02/23/780/#more-780</a><br /></p><p>宅與不宅之間<br />辯不完的九把刀事件:媒體的暴力與網友的群眾暴力<br /><a href="http://blog.pixnet.net/Gamestu/post/14689094">http://blog.pixnet.net/Gamestu/post/14689094</a><br /></p><p>新龍貓森林<br /><a href="http://totorogo.dyndns.org/?p=424">http://totorogo.dyndns.org/?p=424</a></p> <p>實際狀況發展<br />兩邊都受到傷害,九把刀受挫,陳漢寧的創作生命已然葬送</p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-54565680250820988662008-02-10T03:55:00.000+08:002008-02-10T04:46:08.537+08:00UNIQLO跳舞時鐘:鬼才MV導演児玉裕一<div align="left"><script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.uniqlo.jp/uniqlock/user/js/IJCoNmDlZnLAaHOL.js"></script><br /><br /></div><div align="left"><br />UNIQLO是日本頗富盛名的服飾品牌,雖然走的是平價路線,但是不管在行銷或是產品設計上,卻饒富創意,這次要介紹的就是他們的網路時鐘。點進他們的網頁,可以選擇設定使用跳舞時鐘,這個跳舞時鐘,舞者會隨著時間而有不同的動作,相當有趣,而且還可以設定固定的時間報時,我設定的是中午12點整,如果你剛好在這個時間來的話,就可以看到一隻可愛的羊咩咩跟你說說話。<br /><br /></div><div align="left"> </div><div align="left">一般的活動網站,僅僅是單純的活動頁面,最多就是放個與產品相關的小遊戲,然而這個部落格時鐘,卻打破了單向思考,活用了web2.0的社群概念,來進行網路部落格的串聯活動。一般提到活動串聯,只會讓人想到在部落格旁邊貼一張小貼紙而已,然而他們的串連方式卻更深入地藉由UNIQLOCK的網站作為中樞,點進去world uniqlock的部份可以看到,它有一張世界地圖,可以點選各個國家區域,然後便會出現各國家使用者所登入的部落格。<br /><br />↓兒玉裕一為東京事變執導的mv「killer tune」 :<br /><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/A9kHjP-ivNg&rel=" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" height="355" width="425"></embed><br /></div><div align="left"><br />時鐘內的影像,則是由児玉裕一所執導拍攝。提起児玉裕一可能不少人對他感到相當陌生,但是相信許多人早已看過他的MV作品,例如東京事變娛樂專輯中有不少MV即由他操刀拍攝,像是OSCA、Killer Tune、閃光少女。甚至POLYSICS的I My Me Mine與Electric Surfin` GO GO,這兩隻由擅跳機械舞的小妹妹STRONG MACHINE2主演、曾在網路上引起廣泛討論的MV,也出自於他的手下。児玉的影像風格,由這些作品皆可看出,他擅於剪接穩定的節奏,影像中的人物動態,都呈現出機械工整的運動,或許應該歸工於他並非是影像相關科系出身,也因此他在設計影像時有著不同於其他人的想法與品味,其實是可以看得出來,他肯定是那種事前規劃得相當詳盡的導演。児玉最令我欣賞的,就是他並非只是一個MV導演,同時他也會跨刀設計專輯封面或是平面宣傳物,甚至將MV中的道具引用為整張專輯的視覺設計元素,這樣的作法讓整體視覺形象更有整體感。<br /><br />↓據說,跳舞時鐘的原點來自於這隻為Base Ball Bear拍攝的Girl Friend<br /><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/LnG5WZMYF0M&rel=" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" height="355" width="425"></embed><br /><br />延伸閱讀<br /><a href="http://www.uniqlo.com/jp/index.php">UNIQLO官方網站 </a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/UNIQLOCK">UNIQLOCK </a><br /><a href="http://www.caviar.ws/news_jp.html">CAVIER(兒玉裕一所屬的團體) </a><br /><a href="http://blog.roodo.com/snowvega/archives/4760939.html">渦型風箱標本室:怪誕的機械舞-STRONG MACHINE2 </a><br /><a href="http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/arsablue-stanley/article?mid=4205">史丹利愛亂來:平價中的潮流 </a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/%E7%8F%BE%E5%AF%A6%E8%8D%92%E6%BC%A0%EF%BC%9A%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%81%E8%A1%8C%E9%9F%B3%E6%A8%82%E8%A8%AD%E8%A8%88">現實荒漠:日本流行音樂設計 </a></div>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-64459351114199090222008-02-09T10:48:00.001+08:002008-02-12T15:23:09.034+08:00這就叫做萌:人型少女17歲<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlxg2yWJp56V0ifyYe0NdWzjIwB1nto5HAnFcJqcoimfgnn3NVzY1WRv4T5WM4AZ9MFRG5M59JtU-eQKZg6OhKZH5VB5WAvtlucsMDrPh-VIL9llD4-cbIGtGPWEO0w5pgWLjEhRtNxxyu/s1600-h/17.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5164807496028158418" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; WIDTH: 163px; CURSOR: pointer; HEIGHT: 245px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlxg2yWJp56V0ifyYe0NdWzjIwB1nto5HAnFcJqcoimfgnn3NVzY1WRv4T5WM4AZ9MFRG5M59JtU-eQKZg6OhKZH5VB5WAvtlucsMDrPh-VIL9llD4-cbIGtGPWEO0w5pgWLjEhRtNxxyu/s200/17.jpg" border="0" /></a><span style="font-family:新細明體;">會來這個部落格看的朋友,肯定常常聽到「萌」這個字,最廣為人知的解釋,「萌」字指的是種近乎戀愛的情感,例如說,頌恩好萌,就是解釋成說這個叫頌恩的人好可愛我好像快愛上她了ㄧ樣,所以我以後都要叫她萌恩。但是「萌」與「卡哇伊(可愛)」仍然是有一段差距的,萌字更強調了發自內心的感動,卡哇伊(可愛)反而只是單純地描述外型或個性上面的討人喜歡,應該可以這麼說,萌字反映了某種ㄧ廂情願的告白,是由主格作為出發點,ㄧ切的情感或行為都不關受格的事情,相形之下,卡哇伊(可愛)反而是ㄧ種純粹用來描述受格的形容詞。</span><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;">而所謂的萌屬性,則是將日本歷年以來在各作品出現過的角色,重新整理出來的角色類型特徵。這必須從日本漫畫創作的方式談起,將概念符號化是從手塚治虫那個年代所開始的,緊張的時候便從人物額頭上冒出一滴冷汗,咬牙切齒的表情反映了憤怒的情緒,開槍的畫面旁邊會有「碰」的狀聲辭,在人物全力向前跑的背後會有速度線,甚至因應不同的氣氛畫面一旁會有不同的效果線,這些東西都是符號,建構出一種不需要寫實描繪便可輕易閱讀理解的視覺空間–甚至連以素描寫實畫風著稱的沙村廣明,在畫了吉永小百合的素描被人吐槽ㄧ點都不像之後曾經自嘲「自己是個漫畫家,而非人像畫家」–所以若用這種觀點來看待漫畫家,就會發現日本的漫畫家們其實是在用另ㄧ種視覺的語言模式來書寫故事。近期的久米田康治可說是這種風格的極致。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;">同樣的,當人物概念也被歸納整理成符號之後,就成為了另ㄧ種創作故事的方式,這就是萌屬性的根本。萌屬性可從四種角度來區分:體態外貌、個性、職業、角色關係。體態外貌是最基本的,可能有身材(巨乳貧乳),或是裝扮(過膝長襪、眼鏡);個性上,可能有外冷內熱的傲嬌、心機重的腹黑或是氣勢凌人的強氣;身分職業者,有女僕、巫女、魔法少女(這算職業?)之類;角色關係上,則也許是妹妹或青梅竹馬。</span><span lang="JA" style="font-family:新細明體;">大抵不脫這四種元素的組合,但若是隨便組合這些元素,並不ㄧ定能夠引發出角色魅力,或說讀者對人物的感情,所以通常最基本的作法便是營造對比感,例如說話口氣粗俗,像男孩子的</span><span lang="JA">ボグ</span><span lang="JA" style="font-family:新細明體;">少女,由於個性已經夠像男孩了,所以大多會從別的角度賦予她女性的魅力,通常是強調女性魅力的巨乳身材,來營造男孩個性</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span lang="JA" style="font-family:新細明體;">女孩身體的反差;或是眼鏡娘(聰明的象徵)其實是個天然小迷糊,迷糊的個性再搭配上需要細心的職業(女僕),這樣就簡單完成一個人物設定了。</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;">其實在這邊,我想強調的是,這些屬性並非是近年才出現的,而是長久以來某些人物被樣板化之後,將性格特色萃取出來的結果。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;">撇開上述,還有另一種萌,那就是擬人化。擬人化也可分為數種,動物的擬人化,食物的擬人化,機械的擬人化,甚至是電腦程式的擬人化。為什麼必須是「擬人化」?這必須歸咎於萌的最原始定義:近乎愛戀的情感。而人愛戀的對象,必須是人類才行。的確,動畫的美少女也並非是真正的人類,所以「萌」真正的重點是,至少要有人類的形象,所以這些沒有生命的物體,必須經過擬人化的轉化動作,才能夠「萌」。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;">講了這麼多,其實這次想推荐的漫畫「人型少女</span><span lang="EN-US">17</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;">歲」,完全符合上述的論點。這部的漫畫故事是說,可愛的美少女四谷菫轉學到了新的高中,她努力地結交新朋友,然而卻沒有人敢靠近她一步,原來…小菫是一個由大叔操縱的腹語術人偶。沒錯!這部漫畫果然是萌的頂點!第一、她的人物設定上對比感極為強烈,有誰會想到一個大叔的內心竟然是一個</span><span lang="EN-US">17</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;">歲的美少女?劇中有不少人不斷質疑小菫根本是個人偶(其實也不用懷疑了,本來就是那個變態大叔在操縱她),然而小菫一直堅持自己是個普通的高中少女(這個大叔真得有問題),再加上為她人著想的個性,漸漸地同學與老師們也開始接納了小菫(說穿了,也是懶得去刺破大叔),於是開啟了一場又一場溫馨感人又充滿荒謬感的爆笑故事。第二、故事中有不少的男生喜歡上溫柔可愛的小菫,縱使小菫只是個人偶,在大叔的表演下讓男孩子們早就接受這個如妄想一般存在的少女,可以這麼說吧,當你認為幻覺是真實的時候,那就是真實而非幻覺,這也完全符合擬人化這點。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;">所以說,想瞭解什麼叫做萌,看這部就對啦!順帶一提,日前這部漫畫已經發出了日劇化的訊息,讓我們來期待一下到底將如何演繹美少女人偶的故事呢?</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;"><a href="http://www.books.com.tw/exep/assp.php/jiraishin/exep/prod/booksfile.php?item=0010347196">博客來AP連結</a></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtwzH0FoNqEev7U7QcTHqaYFz5QCcBWfFPvpPb7ytDEaOYWBmXG6Q-oGQOZWtGl9-JOJlCtIxToh5d1iUcSNzhLRnzaP_4duA2u59TGcYVg4qQpH8rK-wTb9oGn_vwRB-a4WD3ibzDwPQd/s1600-h/16.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5164808028604103138" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 420px; CURSOR: pointer; HEIGHT: 305px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtwzH0FoNqEev7U7QcTHqaYFz5QCcBWfFPvpPb7ytDEaOYWBmXG6Q-oGQOZWtGl9-JOJlCtIxToh5d1iUcSNzhLRnzaP_4duA2u59TGcYVg4qQpH8rK-wTb9oGn_vwRB-a4WD3ibzDwPQd/s400/16.jpg" border="0" /></a></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"><span style="font-family:新細明體;">↑人形少女</span><span lang="EN-US">16</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;">歲第一回中,小菫試圖向同學傳紙條。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" align="left"> </p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6308688627807928978.post-46579545788840569992008-01-18T05:08:00.000+08:002008-01-18T05:16:11.539+08:00推了之後我來報:你推我報VLOG<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">最近相當忙碌,主要是在忙<a href="http://www.push-reporter.com/">你推我報</a>的事情。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">你推我報是一個推文網站,有別於其他的推文平台,這裡的特點在於,會將推文數高的網頁內容,製播成</span><span lang="EN-US">VLO</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;" lang="EN-US">G</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">,而我在此擔任的是製作人的職務</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">VLOG</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">是什麼?</span><span lang="EN-US">VLOG</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">這個字,是來自於</span><span lang="EN-US">VIDEO BLOG</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">的簡稱,</span><span lang="EN-US">BLOG</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">部落格大家都很熟悉,已經是現今網路上不少人都碰觸過的東西,早期的部落格原本是網路族群間的菁英份子在玩的交友把戲,後來隨著網路科技的發達,各部落格平台才逐漸擴張到不同的使用者身上,時至今日,閱眾就算沒玩過部落格,也看過別人的部落格</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">。而部落格的功能也不僅侷限在紀錄心情日記或是人際交友,隨著各知名部落客的崛起與成名,部落格甚至一躍成為具備個人觀點的小眾媒體。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">以現今的科技,除了用文字表達以外,部落格還可以用圖片、音樂、或是影片的形式來輔助部落格的文章,甚至也可以不用文字,以圖片為主要內容,寫到這邊不得不提一下<a href="http://blog.sina.com.tw/kokai/">古怪筆記本</a>了,古怪筆記本中大部份的內容都是以格主古怪本身生活為題材畫出來的虛傳系四格漫畫,<a href="http://blog.sina.com.tw/kokai/article.php?pbgid=941&entryid=575376">最近她出新書了</a>,歡迎捧場一下,祝她成為下一個彎彎。</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">而</span><span lang="EN-US">VLO</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;" lang="EN-US">G</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">,則是以影片形式為主要發表形式的<span lang="EN-US">BLOG </span>。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">可能是技術與設備的門檻,投入</span><span lang="EN-US">VLOG</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">製作的人並不多,但仍然不乏知名的</span><span lang="EN-US">VLOGGE</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;" lang="EN-US">R</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">,最知名的莫過於可愛的<a href="http://www.im.tv/myvlog/dodolook"><span lang="EN-US">DODOLOOK</span></a>啦,看她的<span lang="EN-US">VLOG</span>真是一種享受,隨便一個生活片段都可以作成有趣的內容,長相甜美是她爆紅的原因之一,但是另一個因素,是少數人有所注意到的,那就是為什麼她可以把自己的生活拍得這麼好玩?光是染個頭髮、換個帽子都可以搞得這麼有意思,如果說遵循一般藝人出道的模式,我相信<span lang="EN-US">DODOLOOK</span>肯定紅不起來,因為她完全地在這裡面表達了自己的個性、喜好與快樂,強烈的個人特質在她的<span lang="EN-US">VLOG</span>中散發出來。套一句<st1:personname productid="江亦瑄" st="on">江亦瑄</st1:PersonName>老師跟我說過的,(<st1:personname productid="江" st="on">江</st1:PersonName>老師是我在世新的老師,日前有與她開設的<span lang="EN-US">VLOG</span>課程合作,因此之前時常會去她的課堂給予學生建議,現在仔細想想,我覺得我受她的建議還比較多),「如果能把<span lang="EN-US">VLOG</span>不要當成工作,而能從中獲得樂趣,這樣才成功」,詳細內容我有點忘了,不過大意就是這樣,我想她那時指的應該就是這件事。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">有興趣的朋友,歡迎你前往你推我報試用看看,你可以推自己部落格的文章,也可以推荐好玩的東西,只要推,經過我們的篩選,我們就會在<span lang="EN-US">VLOG</span>中報導出來。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">下面是我日前錄製的節目內容</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">我很樂在其中喔</span><span lang="EN-US">XD</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/nlH5wrkD4QY&rel=1"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/nlH5wrkD4QY&rel=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object><br /><span style="font-family: 新細明體;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style="font-family: 新細明體;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">延伸閱讀</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;"><a href="http://www.push-reporter.com/">你推我報</a></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;"><a href="http://blog.sina.com.tw/kokai/">古怪筆記本</a></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://blog.sina.com.tw/kokai/"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;"></span></a><a href="http://www.im.tv/myvlog/dodolook"><span lang="EN-US">DODOLOOK</span></a></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style="font-family: 新細明體;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: 新細明體;"></span></p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11662949093240867958noreply@blogger.com0